Executive Summary

February 12, 2026

Technological investment and GDP: evidence for Brazil and South Korea (2000–2020)

Vinicius Vono Peruzzi; Wagner dos Anjos Carvalho

Summary prepared by the ResumeAI tool, an artificial intelligence solution developed by Instituto Pecege focused on synthesis and writing.

This study analyzed the impacts of microelectronic device exports and technology investment on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in emerging nations, through a comparative analysis between Brazil and South Korea from 2000 to 2020. The objectives were to quantify the effect of microelectronics exports on GDP, investigate the impact of technology investment on these exports, analyze the trends of the variables, and investigate temporal precedence relationships via Granger Causality. The purpose was to compare the results to support public policies and strategic decisions, based on the premise that the interconnection between high-technology exports, Research and Development (R&D), and economic growth is a relevant vector for development (IEDI, 2018).

The relevance of the topic stems from the central role of the microelectronics industry in the global economy, whose components drive innovation in sectors such as automotive, telecommunications, and digital health (Mendez, 2021). Understanding how a nation’s capacity to produce and export these goods correlates with its economic growth and R&D investment is crucial for sustainable development policies. For economies like Brazil’s, strengthening in this market can represent an opportunity for economic ascent (Camboim, 2015). South Korea was chosen as a counterpoint for its success in transitioning to a technological power, driven by successful innovation policies (Zammataro, 2008).

Economic literature suggests a positive relationship between high-tech exports and economic growth, identifying investment in technology as a key factor (Silva, J. A., 2021). However, the specificity of this relationship in emerging countries lacks detailed exploration. While studies focus on developed economies, a gap remains in investigating how this dynamic manifests in economies with structural particularities like Brazil. Factors such as infrastructure, human capital, and the effectiveness of incentive policies exert influence, but their interaction is not fully understood (Leutwiler, 2019). This research is justified by the need to provide empirical evidence to support public policies in Brazil, contrasting its trajectory with the South Korean model.

The central research question was: what is the nature and strength of the correlation and temporal precedence between exports of microelectronic devices, GDP growth, and technology investment in Brazil and South Korea? To answer it, two hypotheses were formulated: (H1) exports of microelectronic devices exert a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP growth; and (H2) technology investment has a positive and significant effect on both exports of microelectronic devices and GDP growth.

The research was a quantitative, observational, and exploratory-descriptive study, which employed econometric techniques for time series analysis. The approach allowed for an objective analysis with tools such as stationarity tests, regression models, and Granger causality analysis. The latter test was particularly relevant for determining the direction of influence relationships between the variables (Coelho, 2021; Silva et al., 2025).

The sample was intentionally set to include Brazil and South Korea. The analysis period was from 2000 to 2020, a span of 21 annual observations, limited by the unavailability of consistent R&D data for Brazil before 2000 (Augusto et al., 2013). Secondary data were collected from the UN Comtrade Database and the World Bank Group (UN COMTRADE DATABASE, 2023; WORLD BANK GROUP, 2023). The dependent variable (Y) was the annual GDP growth rate. The independent variables were Technology Investment (X1), represented by R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP, and Microelectronics Exports (X2), using the total value of annual Integrated Circuit exports (HS code 8542) as a proxy.

Data processing was performed in Python (Fávero & Belfiore, 2017), involving consolidation and harmonization (Fávero, 2013). The Microelectronics Exports variable was subjected to a logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance (Wagner & Callegari-Jacques, 1998). The stationarity analysis with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test was a critical step to avoid spurious results (Silveira et al., 2022). The application of the ADF test, with a significance level of 5%, determined the necessary transformations (first or second difference) to ensure that all series used in the modeling were stationary (I(0)).

Inferential analysis, applied to stationary series, was structured in two methods. First, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression Models were estimated for each country to quantify the strength and direction of the relationship between the variables and test hypotheses H1 and H2 (Silva, 2002). Second, the Granger Causality Test was applied, which assesses whether past values of one variable (X) have predictive power over the future values of another (Y) (Diniz et al., 2009). The test was performed in a bivariate manner in both directions (e.g., R&D → GDP) to determine the direction of influence; rejection of the null hypothesis (p-value ≤ 0.05) indicates that X “causes” Y in the Granger sense (Almeida, 2011; Neves, 2018).

The analysis of the results reveals structural disparities between the innovation dynamics of Brazil and South Korea. In the period from 2000 to 2020, South Korea demonstrated a high density of STEM graduates, while Brazil focused on the generalist expansion of higher education. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in South Korea was focused on integration into high-tech value chains, while in Brazil it was directed towards commodities and the domestic market. The South Korean patent registration rate is one of the highest in the world, reflecting an efficient conversion of R&D investment, an indicator in which Brazil performs lower. This context is crucial for interpreting the asymmetry found in the tests.

The stationarity analysis (ADF Test) was the first step to reveal differences. For Brazil, the R&D Investment and Microelectronics Exports (log) series showed stationarity at level (I(0)), while GDP growth was integrated of order one (I(1)), requiring the first difference. In contrast, for South Korea, both GDP and R&D were I(1). The most notable difference was in the microelectronics exports series, which proved to be integrated of order two (I(2)). This high order of integration indicates that the performance of South Korean exports in the sector is characterized by a process with a high degree of persistence and subject to structural shocks, reflecting an accelerated growth trajectory not observed in Brazil. The evolution of R&D investment (% of GDP) already anticipated this divergence, with Brazil oscillating around 1-1.4%, while South Korea jumped from 2.1% in 2000 to 4.8% in 2020.

The core of this study’s discovery lies in the results of the Granger Causality Test. For Brazil, the results indicated a unidirectional causality: GDP growth “causes”,

It is concluded that the objective was achieved, preserving the findings and the outlined practical contribution.

References:
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Augusto, C. A.; Souza, J. P. de; Dellagnelo, E. H. L.; Cario, S. A. F. Qualitative Research: methodological rigor in the treatment of transaction cost theory in articles presented at Sober congresses (2007-2011). R. Bras. Eco. de Emp, Piracicaba-SP, v. 51, n. 4, p. 745-764, 2013.
Camboim, G. F. 2015. Innovation Capabilities of Companies in the Brazilian Microelectronics Segment. Undergraduate Thesis. Department of Administrative Sciences, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Coelho, R. S. Granger causality relationship between financial development, foreign trade and economic growth: Analysis of the Brazilian case. 2021. 44 f. Monograph (Undergraduate in Finance) – School of Economics, Administration, Actuarial Science and Accounting, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2021.
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Zammataro, Cynthia


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