Renewable energies: the Brazilian advantage

Column

Energy Transition

September 30, 2026

Renewable energies: the Brazilian advantage

Brazil needs to invest in the capacity to transform natural resources into innovation, productivity, and development

Talking about energy is talking about development. Behind industry, transportation, services, cities, and increasingly artificial intelligence, there is an energy infrastructure that sustains the economy. Understanding a country’s energy matrix is understanding an important part of its choices, vulnerabilities, and opportunities.

The energy matrix corresponds to the set of sources used to meet a country’s energy demand, covering transport, industry, residential consumption, and electricity generation. The electricity matrix, on the other hand, specifically represents the sources used to generate electricity (EPE, 2026). This distinction helps to understand one of Brazil’s most relevant characteristics: its high share of renewable sources.

Geopolitical implications

The energy transition is already transforming the global matrix. According to the Global Energy Review 2026, by the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewable sources accounted for 34% of global electricity generation in 2025. Added to nuclear energy, low-emission sources reached 43% (IEA, 2026).

The growth is significant. In 2025, global solar generation increased by about 600 TWh, while the globally added renewable capacity reached approximately 800 GW, with solar energy accounting for 75% of this growth (IEA, 2026).

Nevertheless, this transformation is far from linear. Coal remained the largest single source of global electricity generation, while other conventional sources continue to be relevant for the global energy system (IEA, 2026).

In this context, energy ceases to be just an environmental or economic issue and takes on a geopolitical dimension. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2025 highlights that energy security, economic security, and geopolitical tensions are increasingly connected. Dependence on suppliers, infrastructure concentration, and trade restrictions can directly affect energy systems.

The transition itself creates new areas of dispute. Minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths are important for batteries, power grids, electric vehicles, and low-carbon technologies. The concentration of these supply chains has become a matter of energy and economic security (IEA, 2025; IEA, 2026).

The World Energy Outlook 2025 highlights that China is currently the main refining country for 19 out of the 20 strategic energy-related minerals analyzed by the IEA, with an average participation close to 70%.

The change, therefore, is greater than replacing one source with another. The world is reorganizing its energy infrastructure and, along with it, commercial, industrial, and strategic relationships. Countries capable of ensuring competitive energy, technology, and resilient supply chains will have growing advantages. It is precisely in this scenario that Brazil gains relevance.

Brazilian energy matrix

Brazil occupies a differentiated position. According to the National Energy Balance 2026, renewable sources represented 49.5% of the Brazilian energy matrix in 2025, while the participation of renewables in the electricity matrix reached 86.8% (EPE, 2026).

This composition results from natural resources and historical choices. Water availability favored hydroelectric generation, biomass gained relevance, and more recently, wind and solar energy modalities have come to occupy increasing space. In 2025, solar photovoltaic generation grew by 24.7%, reaching 88.1 TWh. Wind generation also advanced, adding 8.8 TWh to the Brazilian electricity system (EPE, 2026).

Therefore, the Brazilian advantage lies not only in the quantity of available resources, but in the possibility of combining different sources and building a diversified matrix at a time when competitive and lower-emission energy gains strategic importance.

The IEA recognizes this position. In its Energy Policy Review on Brazil, the agency highlights that the country has an electricity system predominantly based on renewable sources and is well-positioned to reinforce its leadership in the global energy transition. But leadership also brings responsibilities. And it is precisely at this point that Brazilian challenges begin.

Produce, transmit, and store

The accelerated expansion of solar and wind sources creates a new reality for the electric system. The challenge is no longer just to increase generation, but to ensure that grids, regulation, and flexibility mechanisms keep pace with this transformation.

The IEA points out challenges related to grid expansion, system flexibility, integration of new sources, and the growth of distributed generation. Among the recommendations presented by the agency are the improvement of institutional and regulatory frameworks and the incentive for different forms of flexibility, including storage and demand response.

The diagnosis shifts the debate. Brazil does not just need to generate more renewable energy. It needs to ensure that infrastructure, regulation, investments and market mechanisms evolve at the same speed as the matrix transformation.

The issue, therefore, is not to curb the expansion of renewables, but to create conditions for it to happen in a coordinated manner. Energy ceases to be just an environmental issue and begins to occupy a central space in corporate strategy.

The Powering Up Business Poll 2026 survey, conducted by the international consultancy Public First, indicates that 92% of Brazilian executives interviewed believe that electrification will increase the competitiveness of their businesses. The survey was commissioned by three organizations: E3G, an independent think tank focused on climate policies; We Mean Business Coalition, an international coalition that mobilizes companies around climate action; and Global Renewables Alliance, an alliance of renewable energy industry associations.

The survey heard from 1,994 business leaders, including CEOs, vice presidents, directors, and senior management professionals, from medium and large organizations, distributed across 18 markets, including Brazil.

The collection of responses occurred over the internet, between April 20 and 26, 2026. In Brazil, the result of 92% represents the perception of the interviewed executives regarding the potential of electrification to enhance the competitiveness of their businesses.

Therefore, this is a survey of business perception, not a direct measurement of actual gains in productivity or economic performance (Public First, 2026). The energy transition is also beginning to be perceived as an issue of productivity, innovation, costs, and competitive positioning.

A Global Renewables Alliance (GRA) reinforces this debate by advocating for the expansion of renewables and investments in grids and storage to keep pace with the growth of electrification. The GRA is an international alliance of six industry associations representing different segments of the renewable energy industry: wind, solar, hydropower, green hydrogen, long-duration storage, and geothermal. Among its founding organizations are the Global Wind Energy Council, the Global Solar Council, the International Hydropower Association, the Green Hydrogen Organisation, the Long Duration Energy Storage Council, and the International Geothermal Association.

The entity works with governments, investors, companies, and other institutions in defense of public policies, partnerships, and investments that accelerate the expansion of renewable energies.

It also promotes the global goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030, established in the context of COP28. By representing industry associations, its actions also express a sectoral perspective and advocacy for the expansion of these technologies (Global Renewables Alliance, n.d.).

For Brazil, this represents an opportunity that goes beyond energy generation. A predominantly renewable electricity matrix can contribute to attracting investments, stimulating new production chains, and increasing the competitiveness of energy-intensive sectors.

The IEA estimates approximately R$ 3.2 trillion in energy-related investments in Brazil between 2025 and 2034, considering oil and gas, electricity, and biofuels.

AI, oil and energy transition

However, there is a contradiction that deserves attention. Artificial intelligence can optimize energy systems, increase efficiency, and accelerate innovation, but it also tends to increase electricity demand.

A report published by “Folha de S.Paulo”, in August 2026, based on a report on the impacts of artificial intelligence in the energy sector, indicates that the technology can boost oil and gas production at a pace faster than the advancement of some applications related to clean energy.

Energy transition is, therefore, not linear. New technologies can simultaneously accelerate low-carbon solutions and increase demand for higher-emission intensity sources.

This contradiction needs to be part of the debate. The energy issue must be analyzed considering economic development, energy security, innovation, and emission reduction.

It is at this point that the discussion returns to Brazil. Our energy advantage already exists. What is still under construction is the capacity to transform it into a lasting economic advantage.

We have abundant renewable resources, a predominantly renewable electricity matrix, and expansion capacity in different sources. This creates favorable conditions to attract investments, develop industrial chains, stimulate innovation, and expand Brazilian competitiveness.

But natural resources, by themselves, do not produce development. It is necessary to transform potential into strategy, strategy into investments, and investments into value for society.

This may be the main Brazilian opportunity in the face of the energy transition. More than exporting energy or resources, the country can seek to occupy higher value positions in the supply chains emerging around electrification, the low-carbon industry, storage, biofuels, and new technologies. Brazil does not need to choose between development and energy transition. It needs to build the conditions for both to advance together. The true competitive advantage will not be just in possessing sun, wind, water, and biomass. It will be in the capacity to transform these resources into innovation, productivity, investments, and development.

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Who wrote this column

Rodrigo Thomaz

Especialista em negócios, pessoas, sustentabilidade, governança e marketing, tem mais de 13 anos de experiência em organizações de grande porte. Atua de forma sistêmica na liderança de projetos estratégicos, na estruturação de indicadores para a tomada de decisão executiva e na articulação com stakeholders complexos. É fundador do Instituto Rumo, onde liderou iniciativas de alto impacto socioeconômico, e atua como consultor e articulador institucional, com foco em inovação, eficiência organizacional e geração de valor sustentável no longo prazo.

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