Article

September 30, 2026

Economic-financial indicators and seasonality in the sugarcane-energy sector in two publicly traded companies

Economic-Financial Indicators and Seasonality in the Sugarcane Sector in Two Publicly Traded Companies

Bianca Carvalho Ranzani Lourenço; Mariana Titoto Marques

DOI: 10.22167/2675-6528-202602716

Article derived from a Course Conclusion Work (TCC), with content based on the student’s original work and adapted to the editorial format of the E&S Magazine with the support of the ResumeAI tool, an artificial intelligence solution developed by Instituto Pecege for textual synthesis and organization.

Summary

The sugarcane-based bioenergy sector demonstrated a strong influence of seasonality on companies’ performance, making its consideration essential in economic-financial analysis. Economic-financial indicators for Raízen S.A. and São Martinho S.A. were calculated, their behavior over the crop and off-crop periods was analyzed, and the impacts of seasonality on their results were verified. The research was characterized as a descriptive case study, with a quantitative approach, based on data extracted from the companies’ consolidated financial statements, referring to the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 crop years. Liquidity, operational efficiency, and Profitability Ratios indicators were calculated, organized on a quarterly basis, which enabled intra-annual analysis and the identification of seasonal patterns. The results showed that both companies presented relevant variations in indicators throughout the production cycle, with higher liquidity associated with inventory realization during the off-crop season, peak operational efficiency during the crop season, and negative impacts of climatic factors on profitability. Furthermore, significant differences were observed between the operational models, with São Martinho presenting greater financial stability and Raízen greater sensitivity to costs and operational structure. It was concluded that seasonality significantly influenced the interpretation of economic-financial indicators and represented an essential factor for the adequate analysis of the sector’s companies’ performance.

Keywords: Quarterly analysis; Production cycle; Operational efficiency; Liquidity; Profitability.

1. Introduction

In the contemporary business context, the main goal of managers and entrepreneurs is to ensure value generation and business longevity. To achieve this purpose, strategic decisions are routine, and the basis for effective choices lies in a deep understanding of the organization’s economic-financial position (Assaf, 2021a). In this sense, economic-financial indicators emerge as indispensable tools in the process of evaluating the business situation (Marion, 2023). The analysis of these indicators, extracted from balance sheets and income statements, provides crucial indices that support management in identifying trends, monitoring performance, and aiding decision-making (Assaf, 2021b; Padoveze, 2010).

However, the interpretation of these indicators can be compromised by economic, political, and environmental instabilities, which directly impact the results and can lead to mistaken assessments of the company’s real position (Oliveira and Pinheiro, 2018). A factor of particular relevance is seasonality, whose temporal oscillations have the potential to significantly influence organizational performance. Several economic sectors, including the sugar-energy sector, demonstrate seasonal patterns that repeat annually, following their production and sales cycles (Mori, 2024). The sugar-energy sector, recognized as one of the pillars of the Brazilian economy since the colonial period (Confederação Nacional da Indústria [CNI], 2017), is characterized by a large production volume during the harvest season, followed by a significant contraction in the off-season.

In this context, the oscillation between harvest and off-season periods represents a substantial challenge for the analysis of companies’ performance, as it can distort the interpretation of their operational and financial efficiency. The consideration of seasonality therefore becomes essential for a more accurate assessment of companies’ economic-financial situation, allowing for the identification of opportunities, anticipation of risks, and provision of support for strategic decisions (Oliveira and Pinheiro, 2018). Given the relevance of the sugar-energy sector for the country, this study focused on the analysis of two publicly traded companies classified among the largest in the segment: Raízen S.A. and São Martinho S.A., considered representative for the investigation.

The research sought to answer the question about the possibility of identifying variations in the behavior of the economic-financial indicators of these companies as a function of the seasonality of the sugarcane-energy sector, capable of influencing the evaluation of their results. Thus, the objective of this study was to calculate the economic-financial indicators of Raízen S.A. and São Martinho S.A., analyze the behavior of these indicators over the harvest and off-season periods, and verify possible impacts of seasonality on the results of these companies.

2. Material and Methods

The present study was conducted as a descriptive case study, employing a quantitative approach. The methodological objective was to calculate the economic-financial indicators of two companies in the sugar-energy sector, analyze the behavior of these indicators over the harvest and off-season periods, and verify possible impacts of seasonality on the results of these companies.

The unit of analysis consisted of the companies Raízen S.A. and São Martinho S.A., selected for being major references in the sugar-energy sector and for being publicly traded corporations. The data were obtained through documentary research, extracted from the consolidated financial statements of these companies, available on their respective Investor Relations websites.

The data collection period covered the crop years 2023/2024 and 2024/2025. In the Brazilian sugarcane energy sector, the crop year generally comprises the period between April of one year and March of the following year, following the sugarcane production cycle. The financial statements used were the most recent ones published by the companies (Raízen S.A., 2023, 2024, 2025; São Martinho S.A., 2023, 2024, 2025).

After collection, the data were structured in electronic spreadsheets, with the periods arranged in quarters. This organization allowed for intra-annual comparison of results and analysis of percentage variations between quarterly periods. The analysis was based on nominal values, as the indicators were calculated from the relationship between accounts in the same period, eliminating the need for deflation.

For the economic-financial evaluation, indicators based on the concepts of Assaf (2023) and Marion (2023) were calculated. In the financial scenario, current liquidity (LC) was determined, which measures the company’s ability to meet short-term obligations, being the ratio between current assets and current liabilities. Additionally, quick liquidity (LS) was calculated, which offers a more conservative view by deducting inventories from current assets before dividing by current liabilities, considering the lower degree of immediate realization of inventories.

Operational efficiency was evaluated by asset turnover (AT), which indicates the net revenue generated for each real invested in assets, calculated by dividing net revenue by average total assets. For profitability, the net margin (NM) was calculated, representing net profit in relation to sales, obtained by dividing net profit by net revenue, multiplied by one hundred. Finally, the return on assets (ROA) was calculated to verify the percentage of assets that returned in operational profitability, being the ratio between operating profit and average total assets, multiplied by one hundred.

The data analysis technique involved comparing the percentage variations of the indicators between quarterly periods. The aim was to identify recurring patterns over the crop years, considering the existence of seasonality when the variations between quarters showed similar behavior in equivalent periods of different crop years. This approach allowed for the verification of the impacts of crop and off-crop cycles, characteristic of the sugar-energy sector, on company performance.

3. Results and Discussion

The analysis of the economic-financial indicators of Raízen S.A. and São Martinho S.A. companies revealed the marked influence of the seasonality of the sugarcane-energy sector on their performances, as per the objective of this study. The results were calculated for the crop years 2023/2024 and 2024/2025, periods that presented distinct macroeconomic and climatic conditions, directly impacting the productivity and volumes of processed sugarcane. Understanding these quarterly variations was crucial for an accurate assessment of the companies’ liquidity, operational efficiency, and profitability, highlighting the need to consider the production cycle in the interpretation of financial data.

The macroeconomic and sectoral context of the analyzed crop years was fundamental for the interpretation of the results. The 2023/2024 crop year, for example, was characterized by the recovery of agricultural productivity in the Center-South region, with record levels of sugarcane crushing, driven by favorable climatic conditions. In contrast, the 2024/2025 crop year was severely affected by a prolonged drought and fires in producing regions, resulting in compromised development of sugarcane fields, reduced productivity, and lower processed cane volume (UNICA, 2025). These environmental and market conditions significantly shaped the operational and financial scenario of the companies.

Characterization of the analyzed companies

The companies Raízen S.A. and São Martinho S.A., although operating in the same sector, presented distinct business models that influenced their results. Raízen S.A. operates with a diversified model, encompassing the production of sugarcane, sugar, ethanol, bioenergy, and renewable fuels, in addition to maintaining operations in the logistics and distribution segments. This larger-scale and more complex structure exposed it to greater sensitivity to operational costs and market fluctuations, which was reflected in the analyzed indicators.

On the other hand, São Martinho S.A. focused its operations on the production of sugar, ethanol, and electric energy, with the commercialization of DDGS and corn oil. Its structure remained more directed towards the agro-industrial activities of the sugar-energy sector. São Martinho’s strategy prioritized operational efficiency and sought to diversify its portfolio with corn ethanol, which contributed to partially reducing its dependence on the sugarcane production cycle. These operational and strategic particularities were decisive for the differences observed in the economic-financial indicators.

Liquidity ratios

The analysis of current liquidity indicators revealed that both companies managed to honor their short-term obligations, albeit with distinct safety margins. São Martinho S.A. consistently maintained higher ratios, presenting values approximately 70% to 140% higher than Raízen S.A. This difference was partly influenced by the recognition of tax credits at São Martinho, but also reflected distinct operational models in working capital management.

Raízen S.A. demonstrated a short-term financial structure more aligned with the continuous cash flow needs of its distribution operation, resulting in more limited liquidity headroom. In contrast, São Martinho S.A. presented greater immobilization in biological assets and finished products, justifying the maintenance of higher current liquidity levels. This disparity highlights how the nature of the business and asset management strategies directly impact companies’ short-term payment capacity.

The results indicated that the highest concentration of current liquidity for both companies occurred in the fourth quarter (4Q), which corresponds to the off-season period for the sugar-energy sector. In the 2024/25 crop year, for example, an increase in current liquidity ratios was observed in relation to the first quarter (1Q) of about 23% at Raízen and 35% at São Martinho. This behavior is consistent with Assaf’s (2020) approach, which highlights the variation of current asset elements according to operational dynamics.

The increase in liquidity in Q4 was associated with the final stage of the production cycle, characterized by the conversion of inventories into cash and the reduction of short-term liabilities, factors that strengthened the indicator. However, São Martinho S.A. presented an exception in the 2023/24 crop year, with the peak of current liquidity recorded in the third quarter (3Q). This inversion was attributed to the increase in current liabilities in Q4, driven by higher financial and operational obligations, which, from Assaf’s (2020) perspective, represented a pressure factor on liquidity.

Complementarily, the quick liquidity ratios offered a more conservative view, isolating the effect of inventory retention and demonstrating the companies’ ability to meet short-term commitments with immediately available resources only. This analysis revealed a common commercial strategy between Raízen and São Martinho: retaining products in inventory to maximize returns, awaiting the best prices throughout the crop year. The ratios indicated higher quick liquidity in Q4, confirming that both companies prioritized selling off inventory during the off-season, a period of lower market supply.

This strategy enabled price appreciation and strengthening of cash balances, as demonstrated in the 2024/25 crop year, when dry liquidity evolved from Q1 to Q4 by about 42% for both companies. However, dry liquidity also highlighted significant differences. Raízen S.A. presented ratios, in most periods, below 1.0, which revealed its dependence on the conversion of inventories into cash to pay short-term obligations. This result, consistent with Assaf (2020), indicated a more pronounced exposure of the company to the cycle of realization of its products for the settlement of its commitments.

In turn, São Martinho S.A. exhibited consistently higher dry liquidity indicators, between 70% and 160% above those recorded by Raízen, which demonstrated greater financial resilience in the face of fluctuations in the speed of production outflow. In summary, the comparative analysis of liquidity ratios showed that São Martinho achieved the best performance, maintaining higher levels throughout the two crop years, while Raízen operated with a tighter financial structure and less liquidity margin. In both companies, the results indicated higher levels in the off-season, associated with the strategy of retaining and selling off inventories, revealing the influence of seasonality on short-term liquidity.

Operational Efficiency Indicators

The asset turnover indicators showed that, in the first and second quarters (1Q and 2Q) of the 2023/24 crop year, Raízen S.A.’s assets turned over about six times more than that registered by São Martinho S.A. This disparity was related to the companies’ distinct operational models, corroborating Assaf’s (2020) perspective on the speed of asset conversion into revenue. Raízen’s extensive distribution operation boosted turnover, while São Martinho, with its capital-intensive model focused on agricultural production, showed a lower turnover.

São Martinho’s low asset turnover highlighted the prolonged maturation cycle required by biological assets until effective cash generation, associated with lower commercial diversification compared to Raízen. The peak of operational efficiency for both companies occurred predominantly in Q2, a period when milling reached its peak. In this quarter, the operation showed high capacity and high production volume, resulting in increased sales flow and optimization in asset utilization, even with the strategy of partial inventory retention.

In the 2024/25 crop year, for example, the turnover in Q2 was about 20% higher than in Q1 at Raízen and 17% higher at São Martinho, confirming the pattern of peak efficiency during the harvest. The only exception to this trend occurred in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the 2023/24 crop year at São Martinho, when turnover reached its value of 0.1215. This result was associated with the company’s realization phase, in which accumulated inventory volumes from previous quarters were sold to capture higher prices in the off-season.

Seasonality also played a decisive role in operational efficiency in 2024/25. At Raízen, the effects of fires and drought, which occurred during the harvest, were reflected in the off-season and contributed to the lower turnover recorded. These climatic events were associated with a reduction in the availability of its own product and restricted revenue, which proved insufficient to support the weight of the company’s high logistical and industrial structure. This demonstrates Raízen’s vulnerability to external factors that affect production and the supply chain.

For São Martinho, the lowest turnovers occurred in the 1st quarter of both analyzed crop years, demonstrating a recurring pattern at the beginning of the harvest. This behavior was associated with the strong application of capital in agricultural activities while the harvest was still in its initial stage, which resulted in a high level of assets versus a still limited revenue generation. In summary, the analysis of the differences in asset turnover showed that Raízen presented greater stability and the best performance, while São Martinho exhibited greater sensitivity to production cycles and the worst performance in the indicator.

The results evidenced the seasonality of operations, with an increase in efficiency in Q2 and a reduction in subsequent periods. The identified variations were linked to the dynamics of stock formation and realization and reflected the strategies of product retention for the off-season. Furthermore, the reduction in productivity due to climatic factors and the occurrence of fires impacted the volume available for commercialization, which compromised the conversion of assets into net revenue in the analyzed quarters, especially at Raízen.

Profitability Ratios

The profitability assessment, through net margin, showed significant differences between the two companies, reinforcing the existence of distinct operational models and different levels of sensitivity to seasonality. Raízen S.A. recorded notably narrower net margins, characteristic of its strong performance in the distribution segment, where revenue remained high, but profitability per unit sold showed a reduction. The company exhibited greater vulnerability to off-season cycles, reaching negative margins in critical periods, such as the -1.6366% index in the fourth quarter (4Q) of the 2023/24 crop year.

This negative performance at Raízen was related to the extended harvest, which resulted in more days of industrial operation and, consequently, in increased costs. There was also an increase in prices announced by Consecana for the ton of sugarcane. In line with Assaf (2020), who emphasizes the control of operational expenses, the results indicated that, in the sugar-energy sector, the rigidity of fixed costs and industrial idleness during the off-season were associated with reduced profitability, limiting the capacity for absorption of production costs.

In turn, São Martinho S.A. achieved superior net margins, reaching its peak of 27.2376% in the second quarter (2Q) of the 2023/24 crop year, which represented a difference of 27.19 percentage points above Raízen in the same period. However, this result did not strictly stem from operational efficiency but was driven by a judicial gain (court order) that positively impacted the net profit, a situation that also occurred in the 4Q of the same crop year, when the company presented a margin of 25.9019%. The analysis, following Assaf (2020), differentiated operational profitability from non-recurring events, evidencing that, when disregarding this effect, the net margin was situated at a lower level.

Seasonality and climatic factors also exerted influence on the profitability indicators of the companies in the 2024/25 cycle. In Q4, the combination of the off-season and the residual effects of the wildfires and severe drought that occurred throughout the harvest were reflected in the lowest profitability levels of the year for both companies. At Raízen, the impact was more pronounced, resulting in a negative margin of -4.3549%, which represented a reduction of approximately 6.20 percentage points compared to the first quarter (Q1), due to the fires that compromised the availability of its own raw material and aggravated the cost structure.

São Martinho, on the other hand, which also recorded its lowest margin of the cycle, at 6.0453%, a reduction of approximately 0.42 percentage points compared to Q1, demonstrated greater resilience. Despite facing high logistical costs and a significant drop in the volume of sugar sold, the company managed to sustain a positive result. This stability was associated with the strategic adjustment in the production mix and the performance of the corn ethanol plant, which helped to offset the revenue retraction in the period.

Finally, the analysis of return on assets (ROA) allowed us to verify the influence of seasonality on companies’ ability to generate operating income from their asset base. The data revealed that, despite its structural nature, the interaction with strategic decisions contributed to the indicator’s variations throughout the cycle. At Raízen, the return on assets indicator showed high sensitivity to operational dynamics. The result, which began the 2024/25 cycle at 2.0934%, showed a progressive decline until reaching -0.3010% in the 4th quarter, which represented a reduction of approximately 2.3944 percentage points over the period.

This Raízen behavior revealed that the expansion of the total asset base, associated with structural investments, occurred in a scenario of productivity breakdown and worsening cane quality due to drought and fires. Consequently, the underutilization of installed capacity and the lower dilution of fixed costs compromised operational result generation, resulting in negative profitability on the total asset base at the end of the cycle. This underscores the importance of efficient asset utilization for profitability, especially in sectors with high seasonality.

In turn, São Martinho maintained a trajectory of return on assets that, despite fluctuations throughout the cycle, remained positive in all analyzed quarters and revealed greater efficiency in the utilization of its assets. In Q4 of the 2023/24 crop year, ROA reached its highest level, at 5.3155%, which represented a difference of approximately 4.4052 percentage points compared to Raízen in the same period (0.9103%). This performance was associated with high industrial capacity utilization and strong agricultural performance, factors that favored the efficient dilution of fixed costs.

Although the ROA indicator at São Martinho fell to 1.1758% in Q4 of the 2024/25 cycle, due to climate impacts on sugarcane supply, the corn ethanol operation contributed significantly. By sustaining productive activity during the off-season, this diversification allowed for the continuity of result generation and reduced asset idleness, even in scenarios of low raw material availability. The use of operating profit for the calculation of return on assets, as recommended by Assaf (2014), allowed for the evaluation of the companies’ operational performance, minimizing the effects arising from their capital structures and non-recurring events, such as revenues from court-ordered payments.

In the sugar-energy sector, the ROA indicator was conditioned by the capacity to absorb fixed costs in scenarios of seasonality and adverse climatic events. In this context, the contrast between the companies indicated that the ROA behavior was associated with the level of asset utilization, so that the combination of lower operating result generation and asset structure negatively pressured the indicator. In summary, the analysis of profitability ratios showed that Raízen presented the worst relative performance, with reduced margins and, in certain periods, negative ones, in addition to a drop in return on assets.

Raízen’s results were a consequence of operational cost pressure, industrial idleness during the off-season, and the realization of investments not yet mature in a scenario of productivity decline. In contrast, São Martinho presented the best performance, by recording superior net margins (albeit partially influenced by non-recurring events) and by sustaining positive levels of return on assets. This reflected greater operational efficiency, high industrial capacity utilization, and raw material diversification, which contributed to the preservation of profitability throughout the analyzed periods.

Integrated analysis of economic-financial indicators

The joint analysis of economic-financial indicators revealed that liquidity, operational efficiency, and profitability were interrelated, evidencing that the observed variations did not occur in isolation but reflected structural patterns in the companies’ financial and operational management. Given this context, the analysis of current liquidity together with dry liquidity indicated that, in both crop years (2023/24 and 2024/25), the financial cushion in the companies did not necessarily stem from high immediate availability but was explained by the strategy of retaining inventories throughout the operational cycle.

In Raízen’s case, the relationship between current liquidity and quick liquidity signaled a more restrictive scenario. Its quick liquidity ratios remained, for most of the period, below 1.0, with an average difference of approximately 25% compared to current liquidity. This demonstrated that the immediately available resources were not sufficient to cover short-term obligations without converting inventory into cash. Such a scenario highlighted a greater dependence on the continuity of operational flow and the speed of production outflow, which increased exposure to liquidity risk, especially in adverse scenarios, such as the climatic events that occurred in the 2024/25 cycle.

In turn, São Martinho presented high current liquidity ratios, frequently above 2.0. Nevertheless, the recurring difference in relation to quick liquidity showed that a relevant portion of these current assets remained concentrated in inventories, which indicated the adoption of a strategy of postponing the commercialization of production, with the objective of capturing better prices during the off-season. Thus, the high current liquidity required cautious interpretation, as it reflected more a position of stocked assets than an effective immediate payment capacity, according to finance literature.

The integration of the operational efficiency indicator into the liquidity analysis revealed that the inventory retention strategy directly impacted asset turnover. At Raízen, the index presented superior levels; however, the quick ratio remained low, which evidenced that higher operational turnover did not increase the immediate capacity to settle short-term obligations. This scenario reflected a business model with narrow margins and a greater need for working capital, in which liquidity depended more on the continuity of operations than on strategic asset accumulation.

At São Martinho, the lower inventory turnover levels in the initial periods of the harvest were due to stock accumulation, while the peak observed in the off-season, mainly in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023/24, reflected the realization of these assets. The joint analysis of asset turnover and net margin showed distinct patterns of result generation among the companies. In Raízen’s case, the greater revenue generation capacity in relation to the asset base, with a peak of 0.5195 in the second quarter (Q2) of the 2024/25 harvest year, was associated with its operations in the logistics and distribution segments, characterized by high operational scale.

However, Raízen’s performance did not translate into profitability, as the company operated with reduced net margins and, in certain periods, negative ones, such as in Q4 2024/25 (-4.3549%), which suggested lower profitability per unit sold and highlighted a greater dependence on operational volume for achieving results. In contrast, São Martinho showed lower intensity in revenue generation relative to assets, keeping the indicator below 0.10 for most of the period. Despite this, it recorded significantly higher margins, reaching 27.2376% in Q2 2023/24, even with the influence of a non-recurring event, as they remained high in other quarters.

This behavior by São Martinho reflected the predominance of operational profitability and revealed a trade-off between volume and margin, in which the company prioritized high margins over the expansion of sales volume. The interaction between return on assets and asset turnover showed that efficiency in sales generation was not sufficient to guarantee the companies’ profitability during the climate stress period. At Raízen, although asset turnover remained at higher levels due to its scale and distribution model, the decline in ROA to negative territory (-0.3010%) in Q4 of the 2024/25 cycle revealed that high turnover did not compensate for the fixed costs of an underutilized industrial structure.

In contrast, São Martinho demonstrated that maintaining a stable asset turnover, driven by the corn ethanol plant, was associated with maintaining a positive ROA, even in the face of a sugarcane harvest failure. Thus, the results indicated that preserving profitability in the sector depended on the ability to maintain the economic utilization of assets throughout the entire cycle, and not just on the intensity of their turnover. In summary, seasonality significantly influenced the interpretation of economic-financial indicators and represented an essential factor for the adequate analysis of the performance of companies in the sugar-energy sector, revealing distinct patterns of adaptation and resilience among the studied companies.

4. Conclusion

This research sought to calculate the economic-financial indicators of Raízen S.A. and São Martinho S.A., analyze their behavior throughout the harvest and off-season periods, and verify the impacts of seasonality on their results. It was found that both companies presented relevant variations in liquidity, operational efficiency, and profitability indicators, which were directly associated with the production cycle of the sugar-energy sector. Higher liquidity was observed in the off-season, driven by inventory realization, and a peak in operational efficiency during the harvest, the period of greatest milling. Raízen demonstrated greater sensitivity to costs and operational structure, with narrower and sometimes negative net margins, as well as a declining return on assets in scenarios of productivity breakdown and underutilization of capacity. In contrast, São Martinho exhibited greater financial stability and resilience, maintaining positive margins and a more consistent return on assets, partly due to diversification with corn ethanol. The integrated analysis revealed that seasonality not only influenced the interpretation of the indicators but also highlighted distinct patterns of adaptation and resilience between the companies’ business models, emphasizing the importance of an evaluation that considers the particularities of the production cycle.

The methodological limitations of this study focused on the scope of only two companies in the sugarcane-energy sector, which restricts the generalization of the findings, and on the descriptive quantitative approach, which limited the statistical deepening of the relationships between variables. Furthermore, the analysis of only two production cycles may not have been sufficient to capture broader variations in indicators over time. For future studies, it is recommended to expand the number of production cycles and include other companies in the sector, in order to identify more consistent seasonal patterns and expand the possibilities of comparison between different operational structures. It is also suggested to deepen the analysis by applying statistical methods, aiming for a more structured exploration of the relationships between economic-financial indicators and the enrichment of the interpretation of the results.

Bibliographic References

Assaf Neto, A. 2014. Finanças Corporativas e Valor. 7ed. Atlas, São Paulo, SP, Brasil.

Assaf Neto, A. 2020. Estrutura e Análise de Balanços: Um Enfoque Econômico-financeiro. 12ed. Atlas, São Paulo, SP, Brasil.

Assaf Neto, A. 2021a. Finanças Corporativas e Valor. 8ed. Atlas, São Paulo, SP, Brasil.

Assaf Neto, A. 2021b. Valuation – Métricas de Valor e Avaliação de Empresas. 4ed. Atlas, Barueri, SP, Brasil.

Assaf Neto, A. 2023. Estrutura e Análise de Balanços: Um Enfoque Econômico-financeiro. 13ed. Atlas, Barueri, SP, Brasil.

Confederação Nacional da Indústria [CNI]. 2017. O setor sucroenergético em 2030: dimensões, investimentos e uma agenda estratégica. Disponível em: <https://www.portaldaindustria.com.br/publicacoes/2017/8/o-setor-sucroenergetico-em-2030-dimensoes-investimentos-e-uma-agenda-estrategica/>. Acesso em: 22 setembro 2025.

Marion, J. C. 2023. Análise das Demonstrações Contábeis. 8ed. Atlas, São Paulo, SP, Brasil.

Mori, R. 2024. Guia de Indicadores Econômicos Brasileiros: Desvendando a Economia. 1 ed. Alta Books, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.

Oliveira, V. I.; Pinheiro, J.L. 2018. Gestão de Riscos no Mercado Financeiro. 1ed. Saraiva, São Paulo, SP, Brasil.

Padoveze, C. L. 2010. Contabilidade Gerencial: Um Enfoque Em Sistema De Informação Contábil. 7ed. Atlas, São Paulo, SP, Brasil.

Raízen S.A.. 2023. Demonstrações financeiras consolidadas. Disponível em: <https://ri.raizen.com.br/pt/resultados-e-documentos/central-de-resultados>. Acesso em: 16 janeiro 2026.

Raízen S.A.. 2024. Demonstrações financeiras consolidadas. Disponível em: <https://ri.raizen.com.br/pt/resultados-e-documentos/central-de-resultados>. Acesso em: 16 janeiro 2026.

Raízen S.A.. 2025. Demonstrações financeiras consolidadas. Disponível em: <https://ri.raizen.com.br/pt/resultados-e-documentos/central-de-resultados>. Acesso em: 16 janeiro 2026.

São Martinho S.A.. 2023. Demonstrações financeiras consolidadas. Disponível em: <https://ri.saomartinho.com.br/listresultados.aspx?idCanal=fS+4uUvKjHXkO8cVhhZAIQ==&linguagem=pt>. Acesso em: 16 janeiro 2026.

São Martinho S.A.. 2024. Demonstrações financeiras consolidadas. Disponível em: <https://ri.saomartinho.com.br/listresultados.aspx?idCanal=fS+4uUvKjHXkO8cVhhZAIQ==&linguagem=pt>. Acesso em: 16 janeiro 2026.

São Martinho S.A.. 2025. Demonstrações financeiras consolidadas. Disponível em: <https://ri.saomartinho.com.br/listresultados.aspx?idCanal=fS+4uUvKjHXkO8cVhhZAIQ==&linguagem=pt>. Acesso em: 16 janeiro 2026.

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October 22, 2026

Forecast of Aggregate Default in the Brazilian Financial System by Sarimax Model with Macroeconomic Variables

Aggregate non-payment in the Brazilian financial system is a crucial indicator of credit risk, the prediction of which is regulated by CMN Resolutions n.° 4.557/2017 and 4.966/2021 for the prospective measurement of expected losses. Aggregate non-payment was modeled and predicted using the SARIMAX model, projecting its trajectory until December 2026 under optimistic, base, and pessimistic scenarios. 164 monthly observations (July/2012 to February/2026) and macroeconomic variables such as unemployment, Selic, IPCA, IBC-Br, and household debt were used. The specification with contemporaneous variables was selected based on information criteria and coefficient stability, and residual diagnostics confirmed statistical adequacy, with a MAPE of 3.12%. Historical non-payment ranged between 4.33% and 7.64%. The estimation identified unemployment (β = 0.2534; p < 0.001) and Selic (β = 0.2128; p < 0.001) as the main positive determinants, with strong temporal persistence (AR(1) = 0.8965). Selic showed increasing correlation with non-payment (r = 0.62 at lag 12), while unemployment demonstrated a contemporaneous effect (r = 0.33). Projections indicated non-payment between 6.30% and 7.98% in December 2026, with a range of 1.68 percentage points, highlighting direct implications for provisioning in financial institutions.

Keywords: Unemployment; Predictive modeling; Monetary policy; Loss provisioning; Time series.