Article

September 30, 2026

Intercultural Management in Global Companies: Conflicts and Strategies for Different Cultures

Intercultural Management in Global Companies: Conflicts and Strategies for Different Cultures

Dulcelene Cristina da Silva; José Manuel Baptista Meireles De Sousa

DOI: 10.22167/2675-6528-202602840

Article derived from a Final Course Work (TCC), with content based on the student’s original work and adapted to the editorial format of the E&S Magazine with the support of the ResumeAI tool, an artificial intelligence solution developed by Instituto Pecege for textual synthesis and organization.

Abstract

Globalization has intensified the operation of companies in multicultural environments, making intercultural management a critical factor for organizational performance. Cultural conflicts experienced by professionals in global companies were identified, and strategies employed to promote intercultural integration were analyzed. The research adopted a mixed approach, with a predominance of qualitative and descriptive quantitative support, of an exploratory nature. It was based on a theoretical review and the application of an online questionnaire to 30 professionals with experience in multicultural work environments. The participants presented diversity in nationalities, roles, and organizational contexts. The results revealed that culture significantly influenced work practices, manifesting in differences in communication, perception of hierarchy, and decision-making processes. Observed intercultural conflicts were frequently related to communication failures, value divergences, and situations of exclusion. However, cultural diversity was recognized as a source of learning and innovation. Strategies suggested by participants included intercultural training, dialogue spaces, integration activities, and active involvement of leadership and Human Resources. It was concluded that effective multicultural management depends on the organizational capacity to recognize and address cultural differences consciously and strategically.

Keywords: Intercultural communication; Intercultural conflicts; Organizational culture; Cultural diversity; Intercultural management.

1. Introduction

Globalization has intensified the operation of companies in international contexts, expanding the interaction between individuals of different cultural backgrounds in the organizational environment. This scenario introduces new challenges for management, particularly regarding communication, leadership, and the effective integration of multicultural teams. Cultural differences directly influence how people perceive hierarchy, engage in decision-making processes, build trust, and communicate in daily work.

In this context, intercultural management emerges as a crucial strategic factor for organizational performance. The absence of a deep understanding of cultural nuances can lead to conflicts, communication failures, and difficulties in collaboration. In contrast, management that adequately addresses and values these differences has the potential to drive innovation, creativity, and improve the organization’s overall results.

Despite the growing relevance of the topic, many organizations still face obstacles in managing cultural diversity in a structured way. Frequently, the assumption prevails that a unified organizational culture is sufficient to harmonize behaviors and practices. However, academic literature, as indicated by Hofstede (2010), demonstrates that national cultures continue to exert a strong influence on individuals, even in globalized corporate environments. Adler (2008) complements this view by highlighting that organizational culture does not neutralize national cultures, but interacts with them, shaping the internal dynamics of companies. This gap between perception and reality generates the need to deepen the understanding of how these interactions manifest.

Given the complexity and importance of managing cultural diversity in global companies, this study is justified by the need to improve the understanding of intercultural dynamics in the contemporary organizational context, offering subsidies for both academic literature and managerial practice. Thus, this study aimed to identify the cultural conflicts experienced by professionals in global companies, as well as to analyze the strategies used to promote intercultural integration.

2. Material and Methods

The research was characterized as a mixed-methods study, with a qualitative predominance and descriptive quantitative support, of an exploratory nature. This methodological design was considered adequate to deepen the understanding of perceptions, experiences, and practices related to intercultural management in global companies, aligning with the objective of identifying conflicts and analyzing integration strategies.

The study’s development occurred in two main stages. Initially, a comprehensive theoretical review was conducted, based on classic and contemporary authors in the area of culture and intercultural management. This stage aimed to establish the conceptual basis of the work and identify relevant dimensions for analysis, such as communication, hierarchy, decision-making, trust, and leadership in multicultural contexts.

In the second stage, an empirical survey was conducted by applying an online questionnaire. The instrument was made available in Portuguese and English, with the purpose of reaching professionals of diverse nationalities and professional backgrounds who had experience in multicultural work environments.

The questionnaire was developed based on Hofstede’s (2010) cultural dimensions and Meyer’s (2014) cultural map, focusing on variables such as communication styles, hierarchy perception, and decision-making processes. The instrument included closed-ended questions, using a 1-to-5 Likert scale, and open-ended questions for qualitative data collection.

The questionnaire structure comprised four thematic blocks. The first block was dedicated to characterizing the participants’ profile, addressing age, nationality, country of operation, position, tenure, leadership experience, and diversity of nationalities in teams. The second block investigated perceptions of culture and work.

The third block explored aspects of leadership and communication, evaluating participants’ perception of people management across different cultures, leaders’ cultural sensitivity, and communication adaptability. The fourth block addressed experiences of inclusion and exclusion in multicultural environments, with open-ended questions to identify lived situations and actions to improve integration. The complete instrument is found in Appendix 1.

The sample consisted of 30 participants, selected by convenience sampling, due to the accessibility of respondents who met the desired profile. Individuals over 18 years of age, with at least one year of professional experience in global companies and experience in a multicultural context, were considered eligible.

Multicultural professional experience was defined as working in an organization whose national origin differed from the participant’s nationality, or the existence of daily professional contact with people of different nationalities and cultural backgrounds. No selection criteria related to hierarchical level, area of expertise, or leadership role were established, allowing the participation of professionals with diverse profiles.

Data collection was carried out between February and April 2026, after the research approval on February 10, 2026. The questionnaire was developed and made available through the Google Forms platform, in Portuguese and English versions, and its link was sent to approximately 80 potential participants via WhatsApp, email, and professional contacts.

The dissemination also occurred through referrals among professionals, allowing the questionnaire to be shared with other individuals who met the inclusion criteria. Participation was voluntary and anonymous, and at the end of the collection period, all 30 responses received were included in the final sample.

The collected data were analyzed according to their quantitative and qualitative nature. For the closed-ended questions, simple descriptive statistical analysis was performed, using absolute and relative frequencies to identify the distribution and trends of the participants’ responses, as well as the degree of agreement or disagreement with the statements presented.

The answers to the open-ended questions were subjected to thematic analysis. This procedure involved reading the answers, identifying recurring patterns, and grouping similar content into themes. The identified themes were subsequently interpreted in light of the study’s theoretical framework, seeking to understand cultural conflicts and integration strategies.

In accordance with ethical precepts, the research was submitted to and approved by the Research Ethics Committee (CEP) before the start of data collection. All participants voluntarily agreed to participate in the study, by accepting the Free and Informed Consent Term (TCLE), with the anonymity and confidentiality of the information provided being guaranteed.

3. Results and Discussion

This section presents the results of the empirical research, discussing them in light of the adopted theoretical framework, with the objective of identifying the cultural conflicts experienced by professionals in global companies and analyzing the strategies employed to promote intercultural integration. The findings reveal the profound influence of the origin culture on work practices, the recurrence of conflicts related to communication failures and differences in values, and the importance of proactive strategies for diversity management.

The research sample consisted of 30 professionals, all with experience in multicultural work environments. The participants presented a notable diversity of nationalities, including Brazilians (twenty-one), Dutch (four), Cubans (three), Americans (one), Nepalese (one), Indians (one), and South Africans (one). They worked in different countries, such as the Netherlands (fifteen), Brazil (ten), Cuba (three), Portugal (two), Hungary (two), Sweden (one), and Mexico (one), with ages ranging from twenty to fifty-four years. Professional experience varied, with a concentration between one to three years and also among professionals with more than five years. The roles encompassed technical, operational, and managerial levels, with twenty percent directly leading teams and thirty-six percent exercising partial or informal leadership. This diversity allowed for a comprehensive analysis of perceptions and experiences in different organizational contexts.

Participant Profile

The composition of the sample, with its richness of origins and experiences, was crucial for capturing multiple perspectives on intercultural management. The inclusion of professionals from diverse nationalities and countries of operation, as well as from different hierarchical levels and with or without leadership experience, enriched the analysis of conflicts and strategies. The possibility of some participants having declared more than one nationality or experience in multiple countries of operation reinforces the complexity and depth of their multicultural experiences, offering a robust panorama for the proposed investigation.

Perception of Cultural Differences at Work

The results indicated that the culture of origin exerts a significant influence on the way professionals work. Ninety-six point seven percent of participants recognized this influence, with seventy-six point seven percent expressing total agreement. This perception corroborates Hofstede’s theory (2010), which describes culture as a “collective mental programming” that shapes behaviors and values in the organizational environment. The qualitative reports from respondents highlighted that this influence is mainly manifested in differences in communication, perception of hierarchy, and decision-making processes in daily professional life.

The practical perception of cultural differences in the workplace was universal among participants, with one hundred percent of them (and eighty percent with full agreement) identifying cultural manifestations in daily life. These differences became explicit in meetings, in the form of feedback, and in deadline management. This finding aligns with Adler’s (2008) view, which argues that organizational culture does not neutralize national cultures but interacts with them, shaping the internal dynamics of companies. The employees’ different origins, therefore, continue to influence the organization’s invisible dynamics.

Communication emerged as a central point of cultural variation. The totality of respondents (one hundred percent) confirmed that communication style varies according to culture. This finding is particularly relevant because, as Meyer (2014) points out, communication is one of the dimensions most prone to intercultural misunderstandings. “Low-context” cultures, such as Dutch or American, value objectivity and explicit clarity, while “high-context” cultures, such as Brazilian or Indian, rely more on nuances, history, and implicit interpretations. The qualitative reports emphasized that this disparity requires continuous adaptation effort to avoid failures in transmitting important messages.

Time management and deadline adherence also revealed significant variations. Ninety percent of participants perceived cultural differences in how punctuality and task delivery are prioritized in multicultural contexts. Only a small portion, ten percent, remained neutral or disagreed. This divergence can be explained by Lewis’s (2006) scale, which distinguishes “linear” cultures, which view time as a limited resource and value strict punctuality, from “multi-active” cultures, which tend towards a more flexible perception of time, prioritizing human interaction. The reports confirmed that deadline alignment is one of the most critical negotiation points between teams.

Observed Intercultural Conflicts

The research sought to identify the main causes of misunderstandings and conflicts in multicultural work environments. Communication was the main bottleneck, cited by twenty-five of the thirty respondents. Next, deadline management (eighteen respondents) and hierarchy (twelve respondents) emerged as critical points. Language (ten respondents) and decision-making processes (eight respondents) were also relevant factors. These results show that conflicts often do not arise from bad intentions, but from the collision of different “mental softwares” that prioritize distinct values, according to Hofstede (2010).

The perception of conflicts related to cultural differences proved to be varied. Thirty-three point three percent of participants stated they had observed this type of conflict, while forty-three point three percent disagreed and twenty-three point three percent remained neutral. These data suggest that the presence of cultural differences does not always result in explicit conflicts, but their effects can manifest in more subtle ways in work relationships and interactions. The main types of conflicts reported included situations of social exclusion, especially due to the use of local languages, perceptions of prejudice or differential treatment, conflicts over communication styles (direct versus indirect), and situations of cultural favoritism.

The qualitative accounts deepened the understanding of these challenges. One participant described linguistic exclusion in informal moments, where local colleagues spoke in their native language, creating invisible barriers. Another mentioned the initial trust friction due to the difference in deadline perception between Brazilian flexibility and Dutch rigidity. A third reported interpreting direct feedback as rudeness, reflecting the clash between the Brazilian culture of “softening” messages and the local culture of efficiency and transparency. These examples illustrate the need for emotional intelligence and cognitive flexibility to navigate between distinct value systems.

The dimension of Power Distance, according to Hofstede (1980), was also evidenced in the testimonies. One respondent described the fear of interrupting a superior or pointing out flaws in their culture of origin, where this would be disrespectful, contrasting with the practice of local colleagues who openly questioned managers. What was perceived as respect (silence) in one culture was interpreted as a lack of initiative in another. This disparity between the Brazilian model, with greater power distance, and the Dutch or Northern European model, based on horizontality, demonstrates how job status can have different weights depending on the employee’s cultural background.

Intercultural Communication and Adaptation

Communication emerges as one of the main factors related to intercultural challenges, with participants reporting significant differences in how they express themselves, interpret messages, and provide feedback. The ability to adapt communication style is perceived as a crucial competence in multicultural environments. Linguistic difficulties and cultural differences in communication frequently generate misunderstandings, feelings of exclusion, and interpersonal conflicts, directly impacting team effectiveness.

The results indicated a predominantly positive perception regarding the competencies necessary to act in multicultural contexts. Seventy percent of participants demonstrated confidence in leading people from different cultures, and the same percentage agreed that leaders sensitive to cultural differences achieve better results. Additionally, seventy-six point seven percent stated they could adapt their communication style to the cultural context. These findings reinforce the importance of cultural sensitivity and communication adaptability as essential elements for professional performance in multicultural environments.

Experiences of cultural inclusion and exclusion were present among a relevant portion of the participants. Approximately forty-three point three percent stated they had felt excluded or isolated due to cultural differences, while thirty-six point seven percent reported witnessing colleagues being excluded or treated unfairly for the same reason. Furthermore, forty percent indicated having observed situations of positive or preferential treatment associated with cultural origin. These results demonstrate that cultural differences can generate not only communication difficulties but also distinct perceptions of belonging, equity, and treatment in the workplace, impacting team cohesion.

Strategies for Intercultural Integration

The thematic analysis of open-ended responses regarding actions to improve intercultural integration and collaboration revealed the recurrence of key strategies. Cultural training and awareness actions, the creation of spaces for dialogue and active listening, integration and team-building activities, and greater openness to sharing experiences between different cultures stood out. Active leadership engagement was also pointed out as fundamental. Together, the responses indicate that intercultural integration is a process that demands both structured organizational initiatives and individual openness to understand and adapt to cultural differences.

Among the main strategies suggested by participants are training on cultural diversity, promotion of multicultural events and integration activities, encouragement of open communication and dialogue between different cultures, and the creation of safe spaces for sharing experiences. The role of leadership and the Human Resources department in mediating cultural differences was also emphasized. In general, the results indicate that intercultural integration depends not only on formal policies but also on individual attitudes and organizational openness to proactively deal with cultural diversity, transforming challenges into opportunities.

Discussion of Results in Light of Theory

Empirical results consistently confirm the assumptions of the literature on intercultural management in global companies. The widespread perception of the influence of the country of origin culture on the way of working aligns with Hofstede’s (2010) concept of culture as “collective mental programming”, demonstrating how internalized cultural patterns guide behaviors, values, and interactions in daily organizational life, especially in communication, decision-making, and interpersonal relationships. This finding reinforces the idea that individual cultural references remain active and impact professional coexistence, even in globalized corporate environments.

The identification of cultural differences in daily interactions corroborates the visible and practical nature of organizational culture in multicultural contexts. As Motta and Caldas (1997) and Adler (2008) discuss, organizational culture does not neutralize national cultural differences, but interacts with them, creating hybrid dynamics that directly influence the functioning of organizations. Participants’ accounts indicate that, even in global companies, individual cultural references remain active and impact professional coexistence, generating the need for management that recognizes and works with this complexity.

The intercultural conflicts reported by the participants, such as situations of exclusion, perceptions of prejudice, and integration difficulties, are supported by the literature. According to Trompenaars and Hampden-Turner (2012), these conflicts should not be interpreted as individual failures, but as tensions arising from distinct and equally legitimate cultural values. The results reinforce the idea that intercultural conflicts are inherent in global environments and, when well managed, can be transformed into opportunities for learning and innovation, driving creativity and broadening perspectives.

Intercultural communication stands out as one of the main points of convergence between theory and practice. The data show that differences in communication styles, such as the degree of objectivity, formality, and contextualization, generate misunderstandings and impact work relationships. This finding is directly related to Meyer’s (2014) intercultural communication model, which distinguishes between high-context and low-context cultures. The absence of alignment between these styles contributes to misinterpretations, reinforcing the importance of communication adaptation as an essential competence in multicultural environments.

Professional Trajectory and Intercultural Mediation: Case Reports

The researcher’s professional trajectory, with twenty-two years of residence in the Netherlands, allowed for the analysis of practical mediation episodes between a European matrix and a Latin American unit. This experience highlighted a cultural ambivalence, where estrangement occurred in both directions, requiring navigation between Dutch ethnocentrism and Latin resistance to formalization. Through the lens of Hofstede’s dimensions (1980, 2010), episodes illustrating the challenges of intercultural management were analyzed.

A deadlock between relationship and formality was observed when a Brazilian collaborator refused to send formal monthly reports, justifying that frequent contact via messaging apps was sufficient for trust. For the collaborator, the requirement for the document represented a lack of personal trust, while for the researcher, the report was an indispensable tool for analyzing results and defining strategies. This episode illustrated the conflict between Latin Indulgence and European Restriction, where the parent company’s organizational culture demanded structure and formal record-keeping.

Another case involved the Power Distance dimension. In an international event, a Colombian collaborator remained passive in the face of customer flow, later alleging the absence of an explicit order for approach. This behavior contrasted with the Dutch expectation of autonomy and proactivity, without the need for direct command. The collaborator awaited the leader’s directive, evidencing a culture with greater power distance, where initiative is more dependent on formal hierarchy.

The Collectivism versus Individualism dimension explained an episode of feedback and personal closeness. A Brazilian collaborator, with prior personal closeness before hiring, interpreted professional improvement feedbacks as personal attacks, reacting with offense. In relational cultures, like the Brazilian one, criticism of work can be felt as criticism of the person and a breach of group harmony, unlike in more individualistic cultures where criticism is perceived more objectively and less personally.

The imposition of a single model and resistance to adaptation were evident at the beginning of the operation, when managers from the headquarters demanded the exact replication of European processes in Brazil. There was a refusal to accept that local differences demanded adaptations. The flexibility of the stance occurred only when performance indicators demonstrated that rigid standardization generated operational inefficiency due to a lack of cultural resonance. This case demonstrated the strong Uncertainty Avoidance of the European headquarters, which sought to control the unknown environment by imposing rigid rules, without considering local cultural specificities.

The devaluation of other management forms was identified in the Dutch matrix, which showed distrust regarding the competence of managers of other nationalities. The conviction prevailed that only the Dutch method was effective, disregarding relational skills fundamental to success in Latin markets. This behavior evidenced traits of Ethnocentrism and an exclusive focus on technical efficiency as the sole metric of value, disregarding interpersonal skills essential in other cultures for building productive and lasting working relationships.

Leadership in intercultural contexts was a relevant aspect, with participants valuing leaders capable of recognizing and dealing with cultural differences. This perception is in line with Adler (2008), who highlights intercultural competence as a critical factor for global leadership effectiveness. The ability to adapt behaviors, interpret different perspectives, and mediate conflicts emerges, in the research results, as a central element for the performance of multicultural teams, reinforcing the need for managers to act as cultural mediators.

The strategies suggested by the participants, such as intercultural trainings, integration events, and promotion of dialogue spaces, corroborate the literature on multicultural management, which emphasizes the importance of organizational practices focused on the development of cultural awareness. However, such initiatives are more effective when combined with active leadership engagement and an organizational culture open to diversity, avoiding merely formal or superficial approaches. The role of Human Resources as a facilitator of this process was also highlighted, translating global guidelines into practices sensitive to local contexts.

The results highlight the duality of cultural diversity: while cultural differences generate challenges and conflicts, they also broaden perspectives, foster creativity, and contribute to more innovative solutions. This ambivalence reinforces the need for strategic multicultural management, capable of balancing standardization and adaptation, as proposed by different authors in the field. Thus, the challenges faced by professionals in global companies reflect widely recognized patterns in the literature, while also underscoring the practical relevance of these concepts in the contemporary organizational context, emphasizing the importance of a conscious and strategic approach to intercultural integration.

4. Conclusion

This study sought to identify the cultural conflicts experienced by professionals in global companies and analyze the strategies employed to promote intercultural integration. It was found that the culture of origin exerted a significant influence on work practices, manifesting in communication styles, perception of hierarchy, and decision-making processes. The findings revealed that intercultural conflicts frequently stemmed from communication failures, value divergences, and situations of exclusion, such as the use of local languages that limited the participation of foreigners or the interpretation of direct feedback as rudeness. However, cultural diversity was widely recognized as a valuable source of learning and innovation, capable of broadening perspectives and fostering creativity.

To mitigate these challenges and foster integration, participants suggested strategies such as training on cultural diversity, the creation of spaces for dialogue and active listening, integration and team-building activities, as well as proactive action by leadership and the Human Resources department in mediating differences. The practical trajectory analyzed reinforced the need for a mediating leadership, capable of decoding the nuances between relationship and task cultures, highlighting that effective multicultural management depends on the organizational capacity to recognize and address cultural differences consciously and strategically, balancing standardization and adaptation. The main contribution of this work lies in enhancing the understanding of intercultural dynamics in the contemporary corporate environment, offering subsidies for academic literature and managerial practice by demonstrating how cultural mediation and adaptation are crucial for transforming challenges into opportunities. However, the exploratory nature of the research and the sample size did not allow for broad generalizations or statistics. It is suggested that future studies expand the sample, explore different sectors, and deepen the analysis of the relationships between culture, leadership, and performance in global contexts, consolidating the understanding of intercultural management.

Bibliographic References

ADLER, N.J. 2008. International Dimensions of Organizational Behavior. 5ed. South-Western, Mason, OH, USA.

HOFSTEDE, G. 2010. Allemaal Anders Denkenden. Contact, Amsterdam, Países Baixos.

Lewis, 2006 [Referência completa não encontrada no documento original]

MEYER, E. 2014. The Culture Map. PublicAffairs, New York, NY, USA.

MOTTA, F.C.P.; CALDAS, M.P. 1997. Cultura Organizacional e Cultura Brasileira. Atlas, São Paulo, SP, Brasil.

TROMPENAARS, F.; HAMPDEN-TURNER, C. 2012. Over de Grenzen van Cultuur. Business Contact, Amsterdam, Países Baixos.

Article originating from the Final Course Work of the Specialization in Business Management of the MBA USP/Esalq

To learn more about the course, click here and access the MBX Academy platform

You may also like

Economy, Investments And Banking

October 23, 2026

Educação Financeira, Comportamentos e Vieses na Tomada de Decisão Financeira

A gestão financeira pessoal representa um desafio crescente, influenciada por vieses cognitivos que afetam a tomada de decisão, mesmo em indivíduos com alto conhecimento. O presente estudo analisou a relação entre o nível de educação financeira e a ocorrência de vieses comportamentais na tomada de decisão financeira de adultos residentes no Brasil. Realizou-se um levantamento de campo de natureza aplicada, quantitativa e descritivo-correlacional, por meio da aplicação de um questionário estruturado a 163 respondentes. O instrumento contemplou variáveis sociodemográficas, conhecimento e hábitos financeiros, e situações hipotéticas para identificar vieses cognitivos. Os resultados indicaram que níveis mais elevados de educação financeira associaram-se a melhores práticas de controle financeiro, poupança e investimento, com correlações significativas com renda e escolaridade. Contudo, a presença de vieses comportamentais (ancoragem, aversão à perda, escassez, otimismo/negatividade, viés do presente, status quo, excesso de confiança e contabilidade mental) persistiu mesmo entre indivíduos com maior escolaridade e renda, sem associação estatisticamente significativa com as variáveis sociodemográficas analisadas. Concluiu-se que a educação financeira, embora essencial para a organização e o controle financeiro, não foi suficiente para neutralizar a influência de vieses cognitivos. Sugere-se a incorporação de abordagens comportamentais aos programas de educação financeira.

Palavras-chave: Comportamento financeiro; Economia comportamental; Finanças pessoais; Heurísticas cognitivas; Vieses cognitivos.

October 22, 2026

Consumer Journey in the Decision to Purchase Infoproducts in the Digital Environment

The expansion of e-commerce and technological transformation have driven the need to understand consumer behavior regarding infoproducts, whose perceived experience has become crucial for professional development. The study aimed to analyze the factors that influenced the purchase decision of infoproducts in the digital environment, considering the stages of the consumer journey. An applied, quantitative, and descriptive research was conducted through a field survey with 100 consumers from Serra Gaúcha. Data collection occurred via a structured questionnaire, using non-probabilistic sampling. The results revealed a qualified audience with strong “mobile-first” behavior. It was found that the availability of detailed information and social approval were the main attraction triggers in the pre-purchase phase. In the transactional and subsequent stages, the minimization of operational friction, the agility of immediate access, and system security proved crucial for conversion and satisfaction, although gaps in human support efficiency were identified. Retention was based on the trust generated by positive past experiences, overcoming the price factor. It was concluded that the infoproduct consumer journey operates as an integrated system, requiring alignment between technological infrastructure, content curation, and support humanization to ensure engagement.

Keywords: E-commerce; Consumer behavior; Consumer experience; Loyalty; Virtual business.

October 22, 2026

Forecast of Aggregate Default in the Brazilian Financial System by Sarimax Model with Macroeconomic Variables

Aggregate non-payment in the Brazilian financial system is a crucial indicator of credit risk, the prediction of which is regulated by CMN Resolutions n.° 4.557/2017 and 4.966/2021 for the prospective measurement of expected losses. Aggregate non-payment was modeled and predicted using the SARIMAX model, projecting its trajectory until December 2026 under optimistic, base, and pessimistic scenarios. 164 monthly observations (July/2012 to February/2026) and macroeconomic variables such as unemployment, Selic, IPCA, IBC-Br, and household debt were used. The specification with contemporaneous variables was selected based on information criteria and coefficient stability, and residual diagnostics confirmed statistical adequacy, with a MAPE of 3.12%. Historical non-payment ranged between 4.33% and 7.64%. The estimation identified unemployment (β = 0.2534; p < 0.001) and Selic (β = 0.2128; p < 0.001) as the main positive determinants, with strong temporal persistence (AR(1) = 0.8965). Selic showed increasing correlation with non-payment (r = 0.62 at lag 12), while unemployment demonstrated a contemporaneous effect (r = 0.33). Projections indicated non-payment between 6.30% and 7.98% in December 2026, with a range of 1.68 percentage points, highlighting direct implications for provisioning in financial institutions.

Keywords: Unemployment; Predictive modeling; Monetary policy; Loss provisioning; Time series.