Data Science Applied to Oil Production in the Brazilian Pre-salt (2023–2025)

Deize Almeida dos Santos; Andressa Porto Castro

DOI: 10.22167/2675-6528-202602839

Article derived from a Course Conclusion Work (TCC), with content based on the student’s original work and adapted to the editorial format of the E&S Magazine with the support of the ResumeAI tool, an artificial intelligence solution developed by Instituto Pecege for textual synthesis and organization.

Summary

The Brazilian oil and gas sector holds strategic relevance, especially after the expansion of pre-salt production, which boosted economic growth and national productive capacity. The production of oil in the Brazilian pre-salt from 2023 to 2025 was analyzed using open data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP). For this purpose, the data were organized, processed, and analyzed through Data Science techniques and Business Intelligence tools, using Power BI, DAX language, and Python, in the integration, correlation, and clustering stages. The results showed consistent production growth throughout the period, with a more significant acceleration in 2025, associated with the entry of new production units, an increase in the number of wells, and the consolidation of key fields. A strong concentration in the Santos Basin and high dependence on a restricted set of strategic fields were observed. Correlation analysis indicated a positive association between the number of active wells and the produced volume, with greater intensity in the Santos Basin. The application of clustering techniques allowed for the identification of different well production profiles, highlighting the operational heterogeneity of the pre-salt. In summary, the recent dynamics of the pre-salt were marked by structural expansion and production growth, reinforcing its strategic relevance for national oil and gas production. The findings contribute to the characterization and monitoring of production dynamics, potentially supporting operational planning.

Keywords: Correlation analysis; Clustering; ANP data; Productive performance; Brazilian offshore.

1. Introduction

The oil and gas sector plays an extremely important role in the Brazilian economy, driving economic growth and technological development in various areas of the production chain. The sector’s contribution is directly reflected in several industrial segments, attracting investments, generating jobs, and increasing national revenues. Starting in 2006, with the identification of pre-salt reserves, Brazil’s energy scenario was significantly altered, requiring robust investments in research and development to enable exploration in ultra-deep waters.

With these discoveries and subsequent exploration, Brazil consolidated itself as one of the largest oil producers, elevating its position on the global energy stage. Over the years, the growing extraction from the pre-salt layer contributed to the increase in national income and the reduction of the country’s external dependence on fossil fuels, reinforcing the sector’s economic and geopolitical relevance (Vartanian and Maciel, 2021). This new scenario led to the reform of the regulatory framework and the adoption, in 2010, of the Production Sharing regime, which increased the State’s participation in oil revenue and resulted in the creation of the Social Fund (FS), aimed at financing investments in education, science, and technology (Trojbicz, 2016; Brazil, 2010). To sustain this model, the management and transparency of production data became essential, with the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) responsible for the regulation and disclosure of this information.

With the advancement of the digital age, the volume of available data has grown exponentially, consolidating Big Data as one of the main drivers of technological transformation. In this context, systematic data analysis has become central to planning and decision-making processes, allowing the identification of patterns, correlations, and trends in large databases (Morettin and Singer, 2022). Thus, data can be converted into useful knowledge, supporting evidence-based decisions (Provost and Fawcett, 2016). Within this context, Business Intelligence (BI) is configured as an essential infrastructure for integrating and consolidating data, enabling the communication of analytical results in an accessible and efficient manner. BI solutions facilitate the collection and analysis of data at different organizational levels, supporting strategic and operational decisions from a unified informational base (Heesen, 2024).

In the energy sector, the use of open data made available by regulatory bodies, such as ANP, represents a relevant opportunity to strengthen transparency and qualify the monitoring of national production. The organization of this information allows for more reliable and comparable analyses, contributing to the understanding of production evolution and its variations over time. Studies indicate that the use of BI on ANP data favors dynamic analyses and expands support for decision-making in the sector (Leal and Moura, 2021).

Given this scenario, understanding the productive dynamics of the Brazilian pre-salt is fundamental for strategic planning and public policy formulation. The gap lies in the need for a systematic and in-depth analysis of recent production data to identify patterns and trends that characterize the operational evolution of the pre-salt. The justification for this study lies in highlighting the potential of public data in generating relevant analytical evidence, promoting transparency, and strengthening the understanding of the productive dynamics of the Brazilian oil sector. Thus, the present work aimed to analyze oil production in the Brazilian pre-salt from 2023 to 2025, using open data made available by ANP, identifying the fields with the highest productivity, understanding the temporal variations in production, and recognizing patterns that characterize the recent dynamics of the pre-salt through Data Science techniques and Business Intelligence tools.

2. Material and Methods

The research adopted a descriptive and applied approach, with the purpose of characterizing and analyzing secondary information. The study sought to identify associations and patterns in the data, without the intention of establishing cause-and-effect relationships between variables (Gil, 2002). It aimed to understand patterns, trends, and behaviors associated with oil production in the Brazilian pre-salt, contributing to a comprehensive analysis of the productive phenomenon. For this purpose, data exploration, treatment, and visualization techniques were employed, based on the principles of Data Science and Business Intelligence (BI).

The data used were obtained from public secondary sources, specifically from the Dynamic Panel of Oil and Natural Gas Production of the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP). The temporal scope of the analysis covered the period from 2023 to 2025, including information on fields in operation, wells, and the sedimentary basins of the Brazilian pre-salt. The choice of this period aimed to analyze the most recent and consolidated phase of pre-salt exploration in Brazil, conferring timeliness and analytical relevance to the study (EPE, 2024; EPE, 2025).

The process of obtaining the data began with the exploration of the dynamic dashboards available in the ANP’s Power BI environment, which allowed for the identification of relevant variables for the study. Subsequently, the fields of interest were defined, and filters were applied regarding the production environment and fluid type, delimiting the dataset. The information was exported to XLSX files, after prior registration on the ANP platform and obtaining access authorization, which enabled the use of additional resources for extraction and selection.

The selected variables to compose the analysis base included productive indicators and complementary information. Among them, the following stood out: Equivalent Oil (boe/d), Oil (bbl/d), Natural Gas (thousand m³/d), Period (reference month/year), ANP Well (unique identifier code), Field (field name), Basin (sedimentary basin name), Installation (platform or FPSO name), State (federative unit), Environment (pre-salt production), Production start date (month/year), Water depth (m) and Depth (md) (m). The barrel of oil equivalent (boe) was considered as 1 barrel equivalent to approximately 159 liters.

The extracted data underwent processing and consolidation using the Python programming language. This stage aimed to integrate the spreadsheets into a single structured and consistent database, containing the selected variables. Subsequently, the consolidated file was loaded into Power BI Desktop, where the modeling and analysis stages were performed. The entire flow of the acquisition, treatment, and processing steps involved extracting data from ANP’s dynamic dashboards, exporting to XLSX, combining files with Python, loading into Power BI Desktop, and subsequent filtering, grouping, and calculations for result generation.

In the Power Query Editor, data treatment and modeling were performed, focusing on the Extract, Transform, and Load (ETL) steps, including standardization and organization. A tabular model was created from a central table that stored production data from pre-salt wells, with variables such as volume, fluid type, and production date. For the calculation of averages, totals, and percentage variations, measures and columns were created in Data Analysis Expressions (DAX), Power BI’s formula language. From the raw variables, descriptive statistics such as mean, median, quartiles, variance, and standard deviation were calculated.

In the Power BI Desktop environment, analytical metrics were calculated through measures developed in DAX, including monthly and annual production variations, annual growth rate for the period from 2023 to 2025, and percentage share of leading fields. Additionally, a correlation analysis was performed between the number of active wells and the volumes produced, using the Python language to calculate Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients. This step allowed for a quantitative assessment of the association between variables, without implying a causal relationship (Grus, 2016).

Subsequently, 189 wells from the Santos and Campos basins were clustered, from 2023 to 2025, with the objective of identifying groups with similar productive and operational characteristics. The K-Means algorithm in Python language was used, an unsupervised learning method widely employed in data segmentation (Ashraf et al., 2024; Grus, 2016). The variables analyzed for clustering included average production, cumulative production, historical daily production peak, ratio between natural gas production and total production, production variability (coefficient of variation), depth, water depth, and operating time. Wells with less than six months of production were excluded, and the variables were standardized to ensure comparability.

3. Results and Discussion

The exploration of pre-salt reserves represented a fundamental milestone for the Brazilian energy sector, driving significant economic, technological, and strategic impacts. The development of these reserves, as pointed out by Sauer and Rodrigues (2016), involved regulatory and operational challenges, but consolidated itself as a strategic opportunity to strengthen Brazil’s energy sovereignty and expand its participation in the global oil market. In this context, the systematic monitoring of production and the analysis of data made available by the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) have become essential tools for understanding productive evolution and evaluating the performance of pre-salt exploratory areas.

From the analysis, modeling, and integration of oil and natural gas production data made available by ANP, analytical tables and textual representations were structured, allowing for an integrated visualization of information regarding the Brazilian pre-salt. The presented results synthesize and organize the data extracted from public databases, highlighting production patterns, temporal variations, and differences between producing areas over the analyzed period. It is important to note that the data used covered the interval from 2023 to 2025, according to the availability of ANP databases at the time of analysis, and may be subject to future revisions. The analytical visualization of the information made it possible to identify fields of greater representativeness, trends of growth or production stability, and levels of production concentration, contributing to a broader understanding of the production dynamics of the Brazilian pre-salt and offering support for comparative analyses and interpretations in the national energy context.

Analysis of oil and gas production in the Brazilian pre-salt in 2023

The monthly distribution of hydrocarbon production in the Brazilian pre-salt region throughout 2023 revealed the monthly volumes produced of oil, oil equivalent, and natural gas. Oil equivalent, expressed in millions of barrels of oil equivalent (Mboe), integrates oil and natural gas production into a common energy metric, allowing the conversion of gas volume into terms equivalent to the energy contained in oil. This standardization enabled the joint analysis of the different hydrocarbons produced and facilitated comparison between periods and total production volumes. Oil was presented in millions of barrels (Mbbl) and natural gas in millions of cubic meters (Mm³), allowing for the individual analysis of each component.

The monthly equivalent oil production in 2023 varied between approximately 90.6 thousand and 108.1 thousand Mboe, with the median close to 100.4 thousand Mboe and the average around 100.5 thousand Mboe. The observed dispersion, reflected by a standard deviation of approximately 6.5 thousand Mboe, indicated relative production stability throughout the year, with a slight increase in the final months. In general, the results pointed to a scenario of consolidated production with a gradual growth trend in 2023, revealing the operational consolidation of pre-salt fields and reinforcing the relevance of this oil province for maintaining national production levels. The increase observed in the final months of the year may have been associated with the better performance of offshore producing units and the resumption of operations after scheduled shutdowns, as indicated in the operational reports released by ANP (2023).

The analysis of the distribution of total production in equivalent barrels of oil by field in the pre-salt in 2023 showed a pattern of high production concentration. The Tupi and Búzios fields stood out as the main producers of the period, jointly accounting for approximately 56.7% of the total production, with 32.84% and 23.86% respectively, reinforcing their strategic role in sustaining national production levels. Following them, fields such as Mero (8.56%), Sapinhoá (6.61%), and Sépia (5.32%) also presented relevant shares, composing a group of high-productivity assets responsible for a significant portion of the volume produced in the pre-salt. This scenario reflected the operational consolidation of the main fields under development, as well as the concentration of production in areas with greater installed capacity, high well productivity, and performance of offshore units, fundamental elements for the maintenance and expansion of Brazilian oil and gas production.

According to consolidated data from ANP (2023), the pre-salt was responsible, in 2023, for about 76.07% of Brazil’s oil and natural gas production in barrels of oil equivalent, demonstrating its relevance in the country’s energy matrix. This high level of participation increased production concentration, given that a large part of this volume was related to a limited number of highly productive fields, such as Tupi and Búzios. In this sense, the dominance of these assets not only confirmed the full operability of the most mature pre-salt areas but also highlighted the structural dependence of national production on these strategic productive fields, consolidating the pre-salt as the main driver of growth and sustainability of national oil production.

The relative contribution of facilities and fields in pre-salt production was analyzed, highlighting the productive concentration in a restricted set of offshore units with high operational capacity. The pre-salt production facilities were predominantly composed of Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units, floating platforms responsible for the production, storage, and outflow of oil and natural gas in an offshore environment. In the analyzed period, the FPSO Guanabara, associated with the Mero field, stood out with approximately 79.94 thousand Mboe, and the FPSO Carioca (MV-30), linked to the Sépia field, with about 64.10 thousand Mboe, ranking as the facilities with the highest production volume in the year.

Subsequently, the presence of several units operated by Petrobras was observed, such as platforms P-75, P-76, P-74, P-77, and P-70, predominantly associated with the Búzios, Tupi, and Atapu fields, which also presented significant production volumes. This pattern indicated that pre-salt production in 2023 was heavily concentrated in a few strategic installations, reflecting high levels of productive performance, high installed capacity, and the operational consolidation of these units within the context of Brazilian offshore exploration. The well-level analysis allowed for the identification of individual asset contributions to total production and highlighted productivity differences among the fields.

The wells with the largest individual production volumes were predominantly associated with the Mero field, with units such as 3-BRSA-1322-RJS (23.32 thousand Mboe), 7-MRO-10B-RJS (21.25 thousand Mboe), and 7-MRO-3-RJS (20.88 thousand Mboe) standing out. Although the Búzios field presented a significant number of wells among the main producers, with several assets distributed among the largest volumes, the highest individual values were concentrated in Mero, indicating the high productivity per well in this field. This pattern showed that, even if not necessarily the field with the largest aggregate production, Mero stood out for the productive performance of its individual units, reinforcing its strategic importance in the pre-salt productive dynamics in 2023.

Although the analyses at the installation and well level showed the concentration of production in specific units and assets, not always operated directly by Petrobras, the distribution of production from the operators’ perspective presented a different behavior when analyzed in an aggregated manner. According to consolidated data released by ANP (2023), Petrobras remained the main operator in the sector in 2023, responsible for approximately 87% of the national oil and natural gas production. This result was related to the state-owned company’s broad participation in most of the pre-salt installations and producing fields, even in a scenario of greater presence of consortia and partner companies in individually high-performing assets.

Thus, the results indicated that, despite the productive concentration observed in specific wells and facilities, Petrobras remained the main agent of national production, consolidating its strategic role in the exploration of the pre-salt (ANP, 2023).

Analysis of oil and gas production in the Brazilian pre-salt in 2024

Continuing the analysis, the 2024 data evidenced the maintenance of a high and relatively stable production level in the pre-salt. Oil equivalent production remained, in most months, between approximately 95 thousand and 110 thousand Mboe, with moderate fluctuations and a slight upward trend throughout the year, especially in the final months. Statistical analysis of monthly oil equivalent production in 2024 indicated minimum values of 94,665.11 Mboe and maximums of 110,432.33 Mboe, with a median close to 103,230.48 Mboe and an average of 103,202.53 Mboe. The standard deviation of 4,422.36 Mboe reinforces the reading of low dispersion around the median, with relatively controlled variations throughout the period. This behavior suggests operational stability, with fluctuations mainly associated with operational factors, such as scheduled shutdowns and production adjustments (ANP, 2024).

The 2024 field analysis showed a strong productive concentration in a few strategic assets. Tupi, Búzios, and Mero concentrated over 65% of the total production, maintaining the same hierarchy observed in 2023, with Tupi accounting for 30.3%, Búzios for 23.9%, and Mero for 12.42% of the accumulated production. The other fields showed smaller participations, composing a second productive level. This pattern indicates high structural concentration and reinforces the operational consolidation of the main pre-salt fields. Subsequently, fields such as Sapinhoá, Sépia, Itapu, and Atapu presented individual participations between approximately 4% and 5%, composing a second level of productive relevance. The remaining fields contributed with smaller shares, reinforcing the concentrated production structure. Overall, the maintenance of the pattern identified in 2023 was observed, with no significant changes in the productive hierarchy, which highlights the operational consolidation of the main pre-salt fields throughout 2024.

The 2024 installation-level analysis highlighted the operational organization of production in the pre-salt, maintaining the pattern of strong production concentration in a restricted set of large-scale offshore units. The FPSO Guanabara remained the main production facility, with approximately 84.53 thousand Mboe, followed by relevant units such as the Petrobras 77 platform (72.44 thousand Mboe) and the FPSO Carioca (MV-30), with about 59.87 thousand Mboe, mainly associated with the Búzios, Tupi, Mero, and Sépia fields. This set of installations reinforces the continuity of the production structure observed in the previous year. However, the incorporation of new units among the main facilities was also observed, notably the FPSO Almirante Barroso (62.64 thousand Mboe), linked to the Búzios field, which became one of the highest volume producing assets in 2024. Furthermore, the FPSO Sepetiba, associated with the Mero field, with approximately 43.96 thousand Mboe, gained greater relevance during the period, indicating the expansion and partial renewal of the pre-salt’s installed capacity. Thus, although the production hierarchy was preserved, an internal redistribution among the installations was verified, reflecting the operational evolution of the fields and the entry of new production systems throughout the analyzed period.

The well-level analysis allowed for the identification of the individual contribution of assets to total production and highlighted productivity differences between fields in 2024, emphasizing the concentration of the largest volumes in a restricted set of high-performance assets. It was observed that the most productive wells were concentrated mainly in the Mero, Búzios, Tupi, and Sépia fields. In Mero, leading wells reached values above 22 thousand Mboe, maintaining the highest individual performances of the period. However, compared to 2023, a slight reduction in maximum values was noted, decreasing from approximately 23.3 thousand Mboe to about 22.5 thousand Mboe, indicating an adjustment in the productivity levels of the most intensive assets. In Búzios, a higher number of wells were observed among the main producers, with volumes predominantly between 16 thousand and 19 thousand Mboe, reinforcing a more distributed production pattern among assets. In the Tupi and Sépia fields, individual volumes remained at more moderate levels, generally between 9 thousand and 15 thousand Mboe, suggesting greater homogeneity in productive performance.

In general, the structural pattern identified in 2023 was maintained, with a predominance of Mero wells in terms of individual productivity and greater productive dispersion in Búzios. However, a slight reduction in production peaks and a wider distribution among leading wells were observed, indicating less extreme concentration in the highest-performing assets. This behavior suggests a scenario of greater operational balance between the fields and reinforces the productive stability of the pre-salt in the analyzed period.

Analysis of oil and gas production in the Brazilian pre-salt in 2025

The analysis of oil and natural gas production in 2025 allowed for an evaluation of the most recent behavior of the pre-salt, based on the evolution of monthly series of oil, natural gas, and oil equivalent. The results showed the maintenance of high production levels throughout the year, with a general upward trend. It was observed that the production of oil equivalent started from values close to 108 thousand Mboe at the beginning of the period and showed progressive growth, reaching levels above 130 thousand Mboe in the final months, with a highlight for October (133 thousand Mboe). This behavior indicates the intensification of productive activity in the pre-salt, reflecting both the increase in oil production and the expansion of natural gas volumes throughout the year.

The statistical analysis of the monthly equivalent oil production in 2025, using boxplots, reinforced this interpretation by indicating a relatively concentrated distribution at high values throughout the year. The median was around 117 thousand Mboe, while the third quartile exceeded 125 thousand Mboe, suggesting that a significant portion of the months showed above-average production. The relatively wide interquartile range, combined with a standard deviation close to 9.7 thousand Mboe, highlights moderate monthly variability, consistent with operational factors, the gradual introduction of new units, and the expansion of production capacity over the year. No extreme outliers were observed, indicating operational stability, even in the face of consistent production growth.

The distribution of accumulated equivalent oil production by field in the pre-salt in 2025 confirmed the maintenance of a pattern strongly concentrated in a few strategic assets. The Tupi field remained the main producer, with approximately 26.52% of the total production, followed by Búzios (24.61%) and Mero (19.27%), which together accounted for about 70% of the annual production. At a second level, fields such as Itapu, Sépia, Sapinhoá, and Atapu presented individual shares between approximately 3% and 4.5%, maintaining lower relative representation. Compared to 2024, the continuity of the concentrated structure was observed, but with a slight redistribution among the main fields, notably the increase in Mero’s share. This behavior reinforces the structural stability and operational consolidation of the pre-salt, indicating that the production gains in 2025 were mainly associated with the intensification of production in already consolidated fields.

The distribution of accumulated equivalent oil production by installation and by field in the Brazilian pre-salt in 2025 showed the maintenance of strong production concentration in a restricted set of large offshore units. The FPSO Guanabara, associated with the Mero field, remained the main production facility, with approximately 91.15 thousand Mboe, followed by the FPSO Sepetiba (84.50 thousand Mboe) and the Petrobras 77 platform (69.73 thousand Mboe), linked to the Búzios field. Other notable units included the FPSO Almirante Barroso (66.01 thousand Mboe) and the FPSO Marechal Duque de Caxias (64.07 thousand Mboe), reinforcing the role of high-capacity FPSOs in sustaining pre-salt production. Compared to 2024, the concentrated pattern was maintained, but with changes in the composition of the main installations, especially with the consolidation of the most recent units, such as FPSO Sepetiba and FPSO Marechal Duque de Caxias, in addition to the advancement of FPSO Almirante Tamandaré. This movement indicates the expansion of installed capacity and the partial renewal of the Brazilian offshore production park.

This behavior is corroborated by ANP data (2025), which indicated production growth in 2025 compared to 2024, reflecting the expansion of pre-salt operational capacity throughout the period. Complementarily, studies by Pré-Sal Petróleo S.A. (PPSA, 2024) indicate that this productive advancement is directly associated with the intensification of investments in production sharing contracts, especially in development activities, such as drilling wells and implementing new production units. Thus, the results highlight a scenario of consolidation and expansion of the production system, in which the increase in production was related to both the expansion of installed capacity and the intensification of the use of assets already in operation.

In 2025, the equivalent oil production at the well level in the Brazilian pre-salt revealed that, despite a similar productive concentration in a reduced number of high-performance assets, the volumes are more balanced in their distribution. It is noteworthy that the highest producing wells are mostly located in the Mero, Búzios, and Tupi fields, with Mero standing out, as its leading wells, such as 3-BRSA-1322-RJS and 7-MRO-18D-RJS, reached almost 20 thousand Mboe in the annual cumulative. When compared to 2024, a slight decrease in individual production maximums and a reduction in the presence of extreme peaks were observed, indicating less concentration in the highest-performing wells. In Búzios, there is still a large number of wells among the main producers, with volumes distributed in intermediate ranges, while Tupi shows a more uniform behavior, with smaller variations between assets. This pattern indicates that the production growth in 2025 was more associated with the expansion of the productive base, with an increase in the number of operating wells and the entry of new units, than with significant gains in individual productivity. ANP data (2025) reinforce this interpretation, pointing out that operational factors, such as the incorporation of new units and interventions in wells, played a decisive role in the production increase throughout the period.

Integrated analysis of accumulated production from 2023 to 2025

In this section, integrated analyses of production in the Brazilian pre-salt region from 2023 to 2025 were presented, encompassing the consolidated evolution of the main production indicators, as well as the investigation of relationships between variables and the identification of patterns in the data through statistical analysis and Data Science techniques. A growth trajectory was observed over the three years analyzed, evidencing the expansion of operational capacity and the consolidation of the main pre-salt production fields. In the case of equivalent oil (Mboe), an increase was observed from approximately 1.21 million in 2023 to 1.24 million in 2024, which corresponded to a growth of about 2.5% in the period. In 2025, this volume reached 1.42 million, representing a more significant increase of approximately 14.5% compared to 2024. A similar pattern was observed in the accumulated production of oil in barrels (Mbbl), which evolved from about 0.95 million in 2023 to 0.97 million in 2024 (+2.1%), reaching 1.10 million in 2025 (+13.4%). Regarding natural gas, the evolution also proved consistent, moving from approximately 41 thousand Mm³ in 2023 to 43 thousand Mm³ in 2024 (+4.9%) and reaching 51 thousand Mm³ in 2025, which represented a growth of approximately 18.6% compared to the previous year.

This behavior, in general, showed that the expansion of production in the pre-salt layer was gradual, reaching its peak in 2025. This growth was possible, in large part, due to the expansion of the oil industry’s operational capacity, which occurred through the entry of new operating units, a greater number of wells in operation, and the consolidation of strategic fields such as Tupi, Búzios, and Mero. As the institution’s data indicate, the increase in pre-salt production in 2025 is closely linked to both the rise in installed capacity and the improvement of existing production systems (PETROBRAS, 2026). The integrated analysis of the three years highlights, therefore, not only the growth in production but also the consolidation of the pre-salt’s productive capacity, which in 2025 reached the highest volume in the series, reinforcing its strategic importance for the production of oil and natural gas in Brazil.

With a temporal analysis of production between 2023 and 2025 in hand, the analysis moved to a spatial one, i.e., how the volume being produced is distributed among the main pre-salt sedimentary basins. There is a considerable concentration in the Santos Basin, which accounts for about 96% of the total production, equivalent to approximately 3.71 thousand Mboe during the analyzed period. The Campos Basin, in contrast, contributes much less significantly, with about 4% of the production, which translates to about 0.15 thousand Mboe. The observed pattern shows that the productive activity of the Brazilian pre-salt is strongly centered in a single basin, reflecting the predominance of areas with high geological potential and productivity. This aligns with the literature, which considers the Santos Basin as the main production center in Brazil, where most of the country’s oil and natural gas extraction is concentrated (Souza and Sgarbi, 2019).

Given this intense productive concentration between the sedimentary basins, it became pertinent to analyze the associated operational structure, especially the evolution of the number of active wells between 2023 and 2025. In the Santos Basin, the number of wells in operation shows a gradual increasing trend, going from about 122 wells at the beginning of 2023 to approximately 155 at the end of 2025, despite some minor fluctuations during the period. In contrast, the Campos Basin operates on a much smaller scale, with the number of operational wells between 15 and 25, and much greater temporal variability. From an analytical point of view, this behavior shows that the expansion of productive infrastructure in the pre-salt is concentrated in the Santos Basin, in contrast to the more restricted and unstable dynamics of the Campos Basin. This pattern can be attributed to the drilling of new wells, the start of operations of FPSO-type units, and the increase in installed capacity, which support the identified growth. The punctual fluctuations, in turn, are the result of operational adjustments and implementation schedules, which makes it clear that production evolves from the combination of structural expansion with the operational dynamics of the oil and gas industry (Petrobras, 2023).

Correlation analysis between the number of active wells and accumulated production

Based on the observed relationship between the expansion of operational infrastructure and production growth, it became relevant to quantitatively analyze the association between these variables. A positive correlation was evidenced between the number of active wells and accumulated production in the analyzed basins over the period from 2023 to 2025. In this context, Pearson’s correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and 1 and indicates the intensity and direction of the linear relationship between variables, allowed for the evaluation of the degree of association between the analyzed indicators (Grus, 2016). In the Santos Basin, Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.857, characterizing a strong linear association between the number of wells and accumulated production. This result indicates that the expansion of productive infrastructure was directly associated with the increase in production in the region, indicating a strong association between the expansion of the number of active wells and production growth. In the Campos Basin, the coefficient of 0.776 also points to a relevant positive correlation, although with greater data dispersion, which indicates a less homogeneous relationship between the variables. This behavior indicates that the relationship between the number of wells and production shows greater variability in the Campos Basin, possibly associated with other factors not contemplated in the analysis. Complementarily, the analysis using Spearman’s coefficient, which assesses the monotonic association between variables, reinforced the results obtained. The coefficients found were 0.840 in the Santos Basin and 0.756 in the Campos Basin, indicating that the positive relationship between the number of wells and production remains consistent even in the presence of possible nonlinearities in the data.

Clustering analysis of producing wells

In addition to correlation analysis, the aim was to identify more complex patterns in well productive behavior through the application of clustering techniques. In this context, a cluster analysis was performed using the K-Means algorithm, widely employed in machine learning applications in the oil and gas industry for data segmentation and pattern identification in complex geological systems (Ashraf et al., 2024). The results obtained synthesized the main characteristics of the formed clusters, allowing for the observation of the definition of four distinct profiles of productive behavior. The clustering results highlighted the formation of four distinct profiles of productive behavior, with clear differences in both performance and operational characteristics. The “New High Production” cluster stood out for presenting the highest average production (24,405 boe/d) and the largest cumulative volume (1,721,570 Mboe), even with a shorter average lifespan (48 months), indicating wells still in the productive plateau phase and with a high contribution to recent production growth.

In contrast, the “Older Less Productive” cluster, which concentrates the largest number of wells (77), presented a significantly lower average production (5,407 boe/d), longer lifespan (103 months), and a high coefficient of variation (1.42), reflecting greater productive instability and behavior compatible with more advanced operational stages. The “Older High Performance” cluster grouped wells with relevant average production (17,800 boe/d) and lower variability (CV of 0.46), indicating greater operational stability even among wells with longer operating times. The “Shallower Less Productive” group, on the other hand, presented the lowest average production levels (4,609 boe/d), shallower average depth (4,726 m), and low cumulative volume (153,257 Mboe), characterizing a group with lower productive performance among the analyzed wells. These results highlight the productive heterogeneity of the analyzed wells in terms of operating time, depth, and productive performance.

The distribution of average production per cluster, through violin plots, allowed for a deeper analysis by highlighting not only the average differences but also the dispersion and density of the data in each group. It was observed that the ‘New High Production’ cluster shows a higher concentration of values in high production ranges, with relatively wide distribution and the presence of upper extreme values, indicating high productive performance and greater variability associated with the initial phase of operation. The ‘Old High Performance’ cluster also shows concentration at high levels, but with less dispersion, which reinforces its greater operational stability. In contrast, the ‘Old Less Productive’ and ‘Shallow Less Productive’ clusters show distributions more concentrated in lower production ranges, with less amplitude, evidencing reduced productive performance. Thus, the distribution analysis reinforces the separation between the groups and confirms the consistency of the patterns identified in the clustering.

The analysis of scatter plots reinforced the consistency of the groupings by evidencing patterns among the analyzed variables. In the average production versus depth graph, it was observed that the clusters with higher performance (New High Production and Old High Performance) are predominantly concentrated at depths greater than 5,500 m, with production levels above 15,000 boe/d. In contrast, the “Shallow Less Productive” wells are grouped at shallower depths and present lower production levels, without this pattern implying a causal relationship between depth and production. In the relationship between average production and months of life, an inverse trend between the variables was identified, evidenced by the concentration of higher production wells in ranges of shorter operating time. The wells in the “New High Production” cluster are predominantly concentrated below 60 months, with high production levels, while the groups with longer life spans show greater dispersion and predominance of lower production values. This pattern is consistent with the typical behavior of production curves in the oil industry, where wells show higher performance in the initial phases, followed by decline over time. In this sense, the use of clustering techniques allows for the identification of heterogeneity patterns that are not always captured by traditional interpretation approaches, contributing to a better characterization of reservoirs (Konoshonkin et al., 2020).

In summary, the research results showed a consistent growth in Brazilian pre-salt oil production between 2023 and 2025, with a more significant acceleration in 2025, driven by the entry of new production units, the increase in the number of wells, and the consolidation of strategic fields. Production concentration in the Santos Basin and dependence on a restricted set of fields such as Tupi, Búzios, and Mero were persistent patterns. Correlation analysis confirmed a positive association between the number of active wells and the produced volume, which was more intense in the Santos Basin. Clustering, in turn, revealed heterogeneous production profiles, distinguishing high-productivity wells with shorter lifespans from older, less productive wells. These findings contribute to the characterization and monitoring of pre-salt production dynamics, providing subsidies for operational planning and reinforcing the region’s strategic relevance for national oil and gas production.

4. Conclusion

The present work aimed to analyze oil production in the Brazilian pre-salt layer between 2023 and 2025, using open data from ANP, identifying the fields with the highest productivity, understanding temporal production variations, and recognizing patterns that characterize the recent dynamics of the pre-salt through Data Science techniques and Business Intelligence tools. Consistent production growth was observed throughout the period, with a more significant acceleration in 2025, driven by the introduction of new production units, an increase in the number of wells, and the consolidation of strategic fields such as Tupi, Búzios, and Mero. A strong production concentration was noted in the Santos Basin, which accounted for the largest share of the total volume, and a high dependence on a restricted set of strategic fields. Correlation analysis indicated a positive association between the number of active wells and the produced volume, with greater intensity in the Santos Basin. Complementarily, the application of clustering techniques revealed heterogeneous production profiles among wells, distinguishing high-productivity groups and shorter lifespans for older, less productive wells, highlighting the operational heterogeneity of the pre-salt.

These findings contribute to the characterization and monitoring of the pre-salt productive dynamics, providing subsidies for operational planning and reinforcing the strategic relevance of the region for national oil and gas production. The study highlighted the potential of ANP’s public data, allied with analytical tools, in generating relevant information, promoting transparency and strengthening the understanding of the sector’s productive dynamics. However, the results should be interpreted as statistical associations, without implying a causal relationship, given that the study focused on identifying patterns and trends. As a perspective for future research, the incorporation of predictive models aimed at projecting the productive behavior of oil basins is recommended, allowing for the anticipation of production growth or decline trends and supporting the sector’s long-term strategic planning.

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Article originating from the Final Course Work of the Specialization in Data Science and Analytics of the MBA USP/Esalq

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