Application of FMEA in Risk Management of Eucalyptus Forestry

Amanda Castanho Albuquerque; Decio Henrique Franco

DOI: 10.22167/2675-6528-202602633

Article derived from a Course Conclusion Work (TCC), with content based on the student’s original work and adapted to the editorial format of the E&S Magazine with the support of the ResumeAI tool, an artificial intelligence solution developed by Instituto Pecege for textual synthesis and organization.

Summary

Eucalyptus silviculture involves a set of activities that demand planning and control, due to the risks associated with the development of the crop and the execution of operations. The study aimed to analyze the main risks present in the eucalyptus silviculture process, using the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool as support for the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of potential failures. The research was developed from the mapping of the production process steps, followed by the identification of failure modes and their respective effects. Based on the assignment of severity, occurrence, and detection indices, the Risk Priority Number (RPN) was calculated, allowing risks to be classified according to their degree of criticality and identifying the most vulnerable points of the system. The results enabled a structured analysis of risks, highlighting the predominance of biotic and operational factors among the most critical ones. Based on this analysis, mitigation actions were proposed aimed at reducing the identified risks and improving processes and action plans for each risk group. It was concluded that the application of FMEA constitutes an effective tool for risk management in eucalyptus silviculture, contributing to decision-making and to the increase of efficiency in forest operations.

Keywords: FMEA; Forestry operations; Risk priority; Eucalyptus silviculture.

1. Introduction

The Brazilian forest sector holds remarkable economic and strategic relevance, being a fundamental pillar for the production of raw material for the paper and pulp industry (Tomé, 2021). This segment has shown consistent growth in recent years, with the area of planted forests for industrial purposes reaching 10.52 million hectares in 2024, an increase of 2.8% compared to the previous year. Such expansion is driven by the sector’s growing production capacity and the implementation of new industrial units (IBÁ, 2024).

In this expansion scenario, efficient project management becomes crucial for planning, executing, and controlling the various stages involved in forestry, from forest establishment to industrial operationalization. The application of good practices, such as those proposed by the Project Management Institute (PMI, 2021), contributes to predictability, risk reduction, and resource optimization. However, forestry projects are exposed to significant uncertainties, arising from environmental, operational, and logistical factors, which can directly affect performance and productivity throughout the cultivation cycle. Therefore, the adoption of planned forest management practices, combined with genetic advancements and the utilization of favorable climatic conditions, is essential to mitigate risks and enhance results (Barbosa, 2023).

It is observed that, in many organizational contexts, risk management is not conducted in a structured manner, resulting in predominantly reactive decisions and low predictability of outcomes. Logistical issues related to ensuring operational flow, such as soil preparation in planting areas and early harvesting, can compromise the performance of activities. The quality of planting, in turn, directly influences the development of the eucalyptus forest. Additionally, climatic factors, such as water deficit during drier periods, can intensify the occurrence of pests and diseases, impacting plant growth and productivity (Borges, 2025; Pereira, 2024). Therefore, a gap is identified in the application of systematic methods to identify, analyze, and prioritize failures in planting processes, which limits the ability to anticipate problems and make assertive decisions. The absence of structured risk management tools can compromise the control of critical variables, negatively affecting the productivity, costs, and sustainability of the forestry enterprise (Buschinelli, 2020).

To fill this gap, the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool stands out as a systematic methodology widely used for the identification, analysis, and prioritization of potential failures in processes. FMEA allows for the recognition, analysis, and mitigation of failures before they occur, contributing significantly to the improvement of reliability and operational performance (Oliveira, 2025).

Given the complexity and challenges inherent in eucalyptus silviculture, and the need for more structured and proactive risk management, this study is justified by the pursuit of greater efficiency and sustainability in the sector. Thus, the present study aims to analyze and prioritize the risks associated with eucalyptus planting through the application of FMEA, in order to identify the main failure modes, their causes, and their potential effects throughout the production process.

2. Material and Methods

This study was characterized as an applied research, with the purpose of solving a practical problem in a specific organizational context. A quali-quantitative approach was adopted, which integrated the interpretive analysis of processes with the measurement and prioritization of risks. The method employed was the case study, allowing an in-depth investigation of contemporary phenomena within their real context (Yin, 2015; Guerra, 2024).

The research was conducted in a medium to large-sized company in the forestry sector, specialized in the production of planted forests for industrial purposes. The organization operates with the cultivation of species of the Eucalyptus genus, intended for the supply of production chains. The focus of the methodological analysis concentrated on the eucalyptus silviculture process.

The data were collected from internal and confidential sources of the analyzed company. Historical records, technical documents, operational reports, and complementary information obtained through interviews with professionals involved in the silviculture process were included. Data collection occurred from January to December 2025, covering a full annual cycle.

The core methodology of the study consisted of applying the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to the silviculture process. FMEA was used as a systematic tool to identify, analyze, and prioritize operational risks, allowing for the recognition and mitigation of potential failures before their occurrence, aiming at improving reliability and performance (Oliveira, 2025).

The application of FMEA followed structured steps. Firstly, the scope of the analyzed process was defined, delimiting eucalyptus silviculture and its main operational stages. Next, failure modes were identified, raising potential risks such as pests, diseases, water deficit, ants, weed competition, planting quality, soil preparation, logistics, fire, wind, and harvesting.

Subsequently, the effects of failures were analyzed, evaluating the consequences of each risk on the development of the settlement and productivity. Concurrently, potential causes were identified, determining the factors that could originate or aggravate each failure, considering climatic, operational, phytosanitary, and management aspects (Buschinelli, 2020).

The assignment of Severity (S), Occurrence (O), and Detection (D) indices was performed based on standardized scales from 1 to 10. These criteria were adapted from the literature and adjusted to the reality of the silviculture process, according to the guidelines of the Project Management Institute (PMI, 2021).

The evaluation criteria for the indices were defined to reflect the particularities of forest operations. Severity (S) measured the degree of impact of a failure on the productive system. Occurrence (O) estimated the probability of the failure happening, and Detection (D) represented the ability to identify the failure before its effects manifested (Stamatis, 2019).

The Risk Priority Number (RPN) was calculated by multiplying the Severity, Occurrence, and Detection indices (RPN = S × O × D). This calculation allowed for the measurement of the criticality of each failure mode, providing a quantitative basis for risk prioritization.

The risks were classified based on RPN values, allowing the prioritization of failure modes according to their criticality. A three-level categorization was established: low risks (RPN ≤ 100), moderate risks (101–200), considered critical and demanding immediate intervention (Stamatis, 2019).

After prioritization, mitigation actions were defined, which consisted of proposing preventive and corrective measures. These actions aimed at reducing the occurrence, improving the detection, and minimizing the impacts of the identified risks. Finally, the risks were reassessed, estimating the reduction in criticality after the implementation of the recommended actions, when applicable.

3. Results and Discussion

The analysis of the data, collected between January and December 2025, allowed for an in-depth understanding of the risks in eucalyptus forestry, covering a full annual cycle and minimizing seasonal distortions. The information was obtained from internal and confidential company sources, including historical records, technical documents, operational reports, and interviews with industry professionals. This systematic process provided the basis for identifying failure modes, their effects and potential causes, as well as existing controls, supporting the application of the FMEA methodology and the subsequent measurement of severity, occurrence, and detection indices, which culminated in the calculation of the Risk Priority Number (RPN).

The results showed the identification of several failure modes associated with silvicultural activities, organized into categories that reflect the complexity of the process. Among the environmental risks, water deficit stood out, with the occurrence of prolonged drought resulting in reduced growth and increased plant mortality. This finding is in line with the literature, which points to water availability as a determining factor for eucalyptus productivity (Gonçalves, 2013), and reinforces the understanding of the consequences of these limitations in the production system (Estrada, 2023).

Regarding biotic risks, failures such as pests, diseases, and ants were identified. Insect infestation, for example, causes defoliation, loss of vigor, and reduced productivity, while the incidence of fungal pathogens compromises seedling development and generates productivity losses. Ant attack during the critical establishment period can lead to seedling mortality and damage to stand establishment. These results underscore the importance of forest health in intensive production systems, where homogeneous plantings can increase vulnerability to pathogens (Gonçalves, 2013; Guégan, 2023).

Operational risks also proved relevant, including failures in planting quality, logistics, and soil preparation. Inadequate planting execution results in low uniformity, reduced growth, and productivity. Operational delays in logistics can cause loss of the execution window and schedule disorganization. Inadequate preparation of the area for planting can lead to erosion, silting, and limitation of initial seedling development. Weed competition, in turn, was identified as a significant failure mode, where competition with weeds reduces growth and delays development, negatively impacting productivity (Borges, 2025).

Other identified risks, although with lower frequency or greater detection capacity, include fires, wind, and harvest. The occurrence of fire can result in total or partial loss of the planted area, while windthrow compromises the structural stability of the trees, causing wood loss and damage to the stand. Early harvest, in turn, leads to a reduction in the volume obtained and economic losses. The systemic approach to identifying these risks, integrating environmental, biotic, and operational factors, aligns with contemporary risk management guidelines (ISO, 2021), reinforcing the analysis’s adherence to the reality of the forestry sector.

The application of FMEA allowed the prioritization of risks through the calculation of the Risk Priority Number (RPN), obtained by multiplying the Severity (S), Occurrence (O), and Detection (D) indices. This classification hierarchized failures according to their potential impact, directing attention to the most critical risks. The results revealed that pests and logistics presented the highest RPNs, both with 240, classifying them as high risks. Fungal diseases also stood out with an RPN of 210, also categorized as high, indicating that biological and operational factors exert significant influence on the performance of the productive system, a behavior aligned with the panorama of the forestry sector (IBÁ, 2024).

The analysis of severity, occurrence, and detection indices demonstrated coherence in the assignment of values, reflecting the dynamics of risks in forestry. Risks that combine high impact with moderate frequency and intermediate detection capability tend to present greater criticality, as expected in practical applications of FMEA (Stamatis, 2020; ISO, 2021). The relevance attributed to diseases, for example, reinforces the importance of phytosanitary management, given that forest health is one of the main limiting factors of productivity, especially in intensive systems (Gonçalves, 2013).

Among the risks classified as medium, with RPNs between 101 and 200, are water deficit (175), ants (168), weed competition (144), planting quality (126), and soil preparation (108). Although they present significant values of severity and occurrence, the greater predictability or control of these factors influences their prioritization. Water availability is widely recognized as a determinant for eucalyptus growth (Gonçalves, 2013), and weed competition interferes with the initial establishment of the crop, reducing seedling performance if not adequately managed (Borges, 2025).

The lowest RPN values, classifying risks as low (RPN ≤ 100), were observed for early harvest (98), fire (80), and wind (64). Although some of these factors present high potential severity, their lower frequency and greater detection capacity contribute to their lower prioritization. However, recent studies indicate that the occurrence of forest fires can vary significantly depending on climatic and anthropic conditions, requiring continuous monitoring (Arruda, 2024). The distribution of the indices, in general, shows internal consistency and adherence to the operational reality of silviculture, allowing for clear identification of intervention priorities.

Based on the prioritization of risks, mitigation actions were proposed to reduce the criticality of the identified failure modes. For pests, the recommended action is to intensify biological and/or chemical control, with responsibility for research and monitoring, and a continuous deadline. For diseases, it is suggested to develop genetic improvement strategies, also under the responsibility of research and monitoring, with a continuous deadline. These continuous and structuring measures are aligned with consolidated practices in forest management, aiming to reduce the vulnerability of plantations (Stape, 2020; Gonçalves, 2013).

In the operational scope, for logistics risk, improving the logistics system is the recommended action, with responsibility of logistics and a short-term deadline. For planting quality, it is proposed to implement standardization and auditing of operations, under the responsibility of silviculture and a short-term deadline. Soil preparation requires carrying out a preliminary topographic survey, with responsibility of the soil preparation area and a short-term deadline. These measures focus on the standardization and improvement of processes, fundamental for productivity in forestry systems (IBÁ, 2024).

For environmental risks, such as water deficit, the recommendation is to adopt more resistant clones and adjust planting according to climate zones, under the responsibility of the environment and continuous timeframe. For wind, it is suggested to use clones more resistant to environmental conditions and plan the planting, with responsibility for research and monitoring, and a planning timeframe. These adaptive strategies, based on the choice of genetic materials and planting planning, are recognized as determinants for productive performance in scenarios of environmental variability (Stape, 2020).

Risks such as ants and fire demand immediate actions. For ants, intensification of monitoring and control of occurrences is recommended, with responsibility of silviculture. For fire, it is proposed to expand remote monitoring of areas, under the responsibility of operations. The definition of deadlines for action execution, with immediate measures for rapid response risks and structural actions for short and medium-term horizons, aligns with the principles of risk management, which consider the criticality and urgency of interventions (ISO, 2018).

The integration between planning and execution is crucial for operational and logistical risks, such as planting quality, harvesting, and logistics. Coordination failures between operational stages increase the probability of delays and efficiency losses, reinforcing the need for integrated planning and process control (PMI, 2021). The incorporation of continuous monitoring, especially for risks such as fires and pests, reinforces the importance of early detection and rapid response in reducing impacts, contributing to greater operational control and safety of the production system.

The proposal for improving risk management, based on results, focuses on the evolution of the applied approach, integrating analysis, prioritization, and continuous monitoring. Biotic factors (pests, diseases, and ants) demand the implementation of integrated pest management (IPM), continuous phytosanitary monitoring, the use of resistant seedlings, and preventive ant control. The projected scenario includes a significant reduction in biotic damage, higher initial survival, and greater uniformity of the stand. This approach reinforces the transition from a corrective to a preventive model, essential for the effectiveness of FMEA (Stamatis, 2019).

For climatic factors (water deficit and wind), the recommended actions are adjusting the planting calendar, selecting more resistant genetic materials, and planning for less exposed areas. The expected scenario is greater climate resilience, reduced mortality, and increased planting stability. This strategy aligns with PMI’s (2021) risk management, which differentiates between internal and external risks, indicating that environmental risks should be addressed through adaptation and impact reduction, rather than by eliminating the cause.

In vegetation and soil management (weed competition and soil preparation), the proposed actions include integrated weed control (chemical and mechanical), correction, and adequate soil preparation. The projected scenario is for better initial development, greater rooting, and reduction of initial competition. Scientific literature demonstrates that the presence of competing plants and failures in initial soil management directly impact the growth and performance of eucalyptus plantations (Tiburcio, 2023).

For silvicultural operations (planting and harvesting quality), the standardization of operations, team training, and the use of adequate equipment are the recommended actions, aiming for greater planting uniformity, loss reduction, and lower operational impact. Operational and logistical management (logistics) requires integrated logistical planning, operational schedules, and resource control, resulting in greater operational efficiency, delay reduction, and better synchronization of activities. These measures are crucial for the performance of the forest system, which does not depend on isolated factors, but on the interaction between operational and environmental variables.

The risk of fire, classified as structural, requires the implementation of firebreaks, continuous monitoring, and a fire prevention and fighting plan. The projected scenario is a significant reduction in fire risk and greater protection of productive areas. Fires in eucalyptus plantations represent high-impact events, requiring permanent strategies for prevention, monitoring, and rapid response, as their elimination is not possible, only mitigation and continuous control (Galiza, 2021).

In summary, the application of FMEA in eucalyptus forestry allowed for a structured analysis and prioritization of risks, highlighting the predominance of biotic and operational factors among the most critical. The proposed mitigation actions, aligned with the literature and risk management principles, demonstrate a consistent strategic direction for reducing the vulnerability of the production system and continuously improving forest operations, reinforcing the importance of proactive and integrated management for the sector’s sustainability.

4. Conclusion

The present study analyzed and prioritized the risks associated with eucalyptus planting through the application of the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methodology. The identification of several failure modes was verified, covering biotic factors such as pests, diseases, and ants, operational factors such as logistics, planting quality, and soil preparation, and environmental factors such as water deficit. These risks were ranked by the Risk Priority Number (RPN), revealing that pests and logistics, both with an RPN of 240, and fungal diseases, with an RPN of 210, presented the highest criticality in the production process. This structured analysis allowed for the proposal of specific mitigation actions, aligned with the nature of each risk, aiming to improve existing controls and reduce system vulnerability.

The application of FMEA proved to be an effective tool for proactive risk management in eucalyptus forestry, promoting a transition from a corrective to a preventive model. This approach contributes significantly to strategic decision-making, increased operational efficiency, and the resilience of the production system. However, it was observed that risks of a climatic nature, such as water deficit and wind, and the risk of fire have a structural character, not being amenable to elimination, but requiring continuous mitigation and adaptation strategies. For future studies, it is recommended to deepen the quantification of the impacts of mitigation actions on production performance and to explore the interaction between risk variables, strengthening FMEA as an instrument for continuous and integrated management for the sustainability of the forest sector.

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Article originating from the Final Course Project of the Specialization in Project Management of the MBA USP/Esalq

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