October 05, 2026
Impacts of Selic rate hike cycles on working capital management
Impacts of Selic Rate Hike Cycles on Working Capital Management
Gabriel Branquinho Gobbo Silva; Anderson Cesar Gomes Teixeira Pellegrino
DOI: 10.22167/2675-6528-202602931
Article derived from a Final Course Work (TCC), with content based on the student’s original work and adapted to the editorial format of the E&S Magazine with the support of the ResumeAI tool, an artificial intelligence solution developed by the Pecege Institute for textual synthesis and organization.
Abstract
The volatility of Brazilian monetary policy, marked by two significant cycles of Selic rate hikes between 2021 and 2025, has had relevant impacts on the cost of working capital for companies, especially in the retail sector. This study analyzed the effects of the Selic rate increase cycles on the working capital management of Magazine Luiza S.A. during the period from 2021 to 2025 and identified the strategies adopted by the company to mitigate these effects. The research adopted a quantitative approach, exploratory in nature, and a single case study design, based on secondary data from Magazine Luiza’s financial statements and historical Selic series from the Central Bank. Working capital indicators (Working Capital Requirement [WCR], Cash Conversion Cycle [CCC], and opportunity cost of WCR) were calculated, Pearson correlation was applied between the Selic rate and these indicators, and a counterfactual analysis was performed to isolate the effects of active WCR management. The results revealed that the WCR decreased by 49.07%, the CCC was compressed from 104.3 to 39.4 days, and the opportunity cost of WCR in 2025 was lower than in 2022, even with the Selic rate at its highest average for the period, thanks to the active reduction of WCR. The counterfactual analysis quantified accumulated savings of R$ 1.36 billion between 2022 and 2025. Pearson correlations indicated a very strong negative relationship between the Selic rate and PMRE (r = -0.99) and a strong positive relationship between the Selic rate and PMPF (r = +0.72). It was concluded that active and proactive working capital management was able to significantly cushion the effects of monetary tightening, demonstrating that operational and financial adaptability constitutes a strategic competitive advantage for working capital-intensive companies.
Keywords: Working capital; Magazine Luiza; Monetary policy; Selic rate; Retail.
1. Introduction
The evaluation of business performance is a central theme in contemporary corporate management, driven by a global economic scenario characterized by uncertainties, high volatility, intense competition, and rapid technological transformations. Although the financial perspective is prominent, a company’s performance is multidimensional and cannot be understood solely by isolated numbers (Gitman, 2010). In this context, financial indicators act as essential tools to translate the complexity of operations into comparable metrics, aiding in the analysis of the present and the projection of future scenarios (Payoneer, 2025).
Within this complexity, the cost of working capital emerges as a crucial factor for the analysis of business performance, being fundamental for obligations and the maintenance of daily operations (BNDES, 2018). In Brazil, this cost is directly influenced by the basic interest rate, known as the Selic rate, which is the Special System for Settlement and Custody (BACEN, 2026). Defined by the Central Bank of Brazil, the Selic rate serves as the floor for other interest rates in the economy, impacting investments, access to and cost of credit, exchange rates, and public debt, thus becoming the main monetary policy tool for inflation control (BACEN, 2026).
Recently, the global economy faced a period of great turbulence, initiated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The abrupt interruption of global economic activity resulted in a severe reduction in consumption, trade, and investments, generating deflationary pressure and the risk of deflation (International Monetary Fund Blog, 2020). In response, central banks around the world, including the Fed in the United States, the European Central Bank, and the Central Bank of Brazil, implemented policies to reduce key interest rates to their lowest historical levels, aiming to make credit cheaper and support the economy (CNN, 2020; BACEN, 2026).
However, the subsequent economic reopening, driven by robust demand, weakened supply chains, and high accumulated liquidity due to stimulus measures, culminated in an inflationary crisis of historical proportions (Agência Brasil, 2022). To combat this new crisis, the Central Bank of Brazil initiated two cycles of Selic rate hikes. The first occurred between March 2021 and August 2022, raising the rate from two percent to 13.75% per year. After a period of stability and cuts, a second cycle of increases began in September 2024, reaching 15% per year in June 2025 and remaining at this level until the end of the analysis period (BACEN, 2026).
These Selic rate high cycles exert significant impacts on all sectors of the economy, with special relevance for the retail sector. Retail, being the final link in the economic chain and depending intensely on installment credit and operational financing, is directly affected by the reduction in access to credit and consumer income, which compresses its revenues, and by the increase in the cost of inventory and working capital, impacting profit margins (Fecomercio SP, 2025). Working capital management is, therefore, vital for the financial health, growth potential, and operational efficiency of organizations (SAP, 2024).
Given this scenario, the analysis of Magazine Luiza S.A. becomes particularly relevant. The company is one of the largest representatives of Brazilian retail, standing out for the integration between physical and digital operations. Its status as a publicly traded company (MGLU3) ensures the publicity and traceability of its financial statements, allowing reliable access to the data necessary for this study (Investing, 2025). The peculiarity of the object of study and the relevance of the temporal scope, which covers the two monetary tightening cycles between 2021 and 2025, justify the choice of the company for an in-depth analysis of the impacts of monetary policy.
This study is justified by the need to understand how companies in the retail sector can mitigate the effects of a high-interest rate environment, demonstrating that operational and financial adaptability constitutes a strategic competitive advantage. Thus, the objective of this work is to analyze the effects of the Selic rate’s high cycles on the working capital management of Magazine Luiza S.A. in the period from 2021 to 2025 and to identify the strategies adopted by the company to mitigate these effects.
2. Material and Methods
This research was conducted using an applied methodological approach, structured according to the definitions proposed by Gil (2017) and other authors cited in the Manual of Methodologies (MBA ESALQ/USP, 2025). A quantitative approach was adopted, which considers the collected data and information as quantifiable, analyzed, and numerically interpreted (Turrioni and Mello, 2012; Godoy, 1995), using statistical techniques to measure relationships between variables (Prodanov and Freitas, 2013).
Regarding the objectives, the research was classified as exploratory, aiming to enable greater familiarity with the analyzed issue and facilitate the consolidation of objectives and the development of hypotheses (Gil, 2010). The chosen design was the single case study, characterized by rigorous and meticulous analysis of a specific object, being indicated for descriptive or exploratory studies and for the explanation of phenomena in their real context (Gil, 2017; Yin, 2015).
The choice of a single case was justified by the peculiarity of the object investigated, Magazine Luiza S.A., one of the largest representatives of Brazilian retail. Its condition as a publicly traded company (MGLU3) guarantees the publicity and traceability of its financial statements, allowing reliable access to the data necessary for this study (Investing, 2025). The temporal scope covered the period from 2021 to 2025, encompassing two monetary tightening cycles of the Selic rate.
The data were collected from secondary sources, obtained from publicly accessible financial statements, such as balance sheets and financial reports from Magazine Luiza S.A., disclosed quarterly and annually. Additionally, historical Selic rate data, disclosed by the Central Bank of Brazil (BACEN, 2026) through the Time Series Generator System (SGS), as well as publications from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and scientific articles on monetary policy and working capital, were used. The use of secondary data was justified by its wide availability, reliability, and speed of collection (Malhotra, 2004).
The financial variables collected from the consolidated financial statements of Magazine Luiza S.A. were: Accounts Receivable from Customers, Inventories, Merchandise Suppliers, Net Revenue, and Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). All values were expressed in thousands of reais (R$ thousand). The methodological structure of the work was organized based on the guidelines of Gil (2017), Yin (2015), and Miguel (2007).
The data analysis was performed with the support of descriptive statistics, including trend analysis and the creation of comparative tables. Relevant financial indicators for working capital were calculated, such as the Working Capital Requirement (WCR), the Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC), and the opportunity cost of the WCR. The WCR was determined by the functional balance sheet method, which reorganizes accounts into operating assets, operating liabilities, and financial accounts (Assaf Neto, 2020). The formula used was WCR = Accounts Receivable + Inventory – Accounts Payable (Merchandise).
Additionally, the NCG/Net Revenue index was calculated, according to Assaf Neto (2020), to neutralize the effect of expansion and identify whether the company consumed more or fewer operational resources proportionally to its revenue. The Cash Cycle, which measures the time capital remains tied up in operations, was calculated from three periods: Average Accounts Receivable Period (PMRV), Average Inventory Turnover Period (PMRE), and Average Accounts Payable Period (PMPF) (Assaf Neto, 2020; Assaf Neto and Lima, 2017).
The formulas applied for the calculation of the deadlines were: AR = Accounts Receivable / (Net Revenue/360); INV = Inventories / (COGS/360); and AP = Suppliers / (COGS/360). The Cash Cycle was determined by the equation CCC = AR + INV – AP. To quantify the financial impact of the Selic rate hikes on the NWC, the annual opportunity cost of NWC was calculated by the formula: NWC Cost = NWC x Average Annual Selic.
Complementarily, a counterfactual analysis was performed, which compared the NCG’s cost-effectiveness identified each year with a hypothetical cost that the company would have incurred had the NCG remained at the 2021 level. This analysis aimed to isolate the consequences of the interest rate variation from the effects of active NCG management on the company’s total financial cost. Pearson’s correlation analysis was applied between Selic and the company’s main working capital indicators, such as the financial cycle, NCG, and the current liquidity ratio (Figueiredo Filho and Silva Júnior, 2009).
3. Results and Discussion
The analysis of the financial data of Magazine Luiza S.A. from 2021 to 2025, along with the historical series of the Selic rate, revealed the significant impacts of monetary tightening cycles on the company’s working capital management. The results demonstrate that, despite an environment of high interest rates, the company implemented effective strategies that mitigated adverse effects, highlighting proactive and adaptive financial management. The research focused on the Working Capital Requirement (WCR), the Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC), and the opportunity cost of WCR, in addition to employing Pearson correlations and counterfactual analysis to isolate the effects of active management.
The Brazilian macroeconomic scenario between 2021 and 2025 was marked by intense volatility in monetary policy, with two cycles of Selic rate hikes. The first cycle, initiated in March 2021, raised the rate from 2% to 13.75% per year until August 2022. After a period of stability and cuts, a second upward cycle began in September 2024, reaching 15% per year in June 2025 and remaining at this level until the end of the analyzed period. These increases were responses by the Central Bank of Brazil to post-pandemic inflationary pressures, according to the deliberations of the Monetary Policy Committee (BACEN, 2026).
Magazine Luiza S.A. stands out as one of the main players in Brazilian retail, with a robust operation that integrates physical and digital channels. Founded in the late 1950s, the company expanded organically and, after its IPO in 2011, consolidated its digital and financial strategy, carrying out important acquisitions such as Netshoes and KaBuM!. The company operates in four segments – retail, financial operations, insurance, and other services – and has about a thousand physical stores in 17 states, in addition to a vast digital platform. Its ability to use physical stores as mini-distribution centers provides a competitive advantage over purely digital competitors (Magazine Luiza, 2026).
Despite its market relevance, Magazine Luiza operates in a sector sensitive to high interest rates and consumption capacity, especially among low to middle-income families, who depend on installment credit (Investing, 2026). The Selic rate, as the main monetary policy instrument, directly influences the cost of credit and companies’ working capital, impacting their revenues and profit margins (Fecomercio SP, 2025). A detailed analysis of Magazine Luiza’s financial indicators, extracted from its consolidated financial statements, allowed for the quantification of these impacts and management’s responses.
Working Capital Requirement
The Need for Working Capital (NWC), which represents the amount of resources needed to finance the company’s operational cycle, was calculated using the functional balance sheet method (Assaf Neto, 2020). This method reorganizes accounts into operational assets, operational liabilities, and financial accounts, providing a clear view of working capital. The analysis of NWC in absolute terms and in relation to Net Revenue provided insights into management efficiency during a period of high interest rate volatility.
The results demonstrated an expressive reduction in Magazine Luiza’s NCG, which fell 49.07% in the analyzed period, going from R$ 9.124 billion in 2021 to R$ 4.646 billion in 2025. The most significant drops in NCG were observed in 2023, with a reduction of 27.16%, and in 2025, with 25.79%, periods that coincided with the peaks of the average annual Selic. This temporal correlation suggests an active response from the company’s management to periods of greater monetary tightening, seeking to optimize capital usage.
The efficiency in working capital management was also confirmed by the drop in the NWC/Net Revenue index, which decreased from 25.86% in 2021 to 12.01% in 2025. This 53.58% reduction indicates a structural improvement in the company’s ability to sustain its revenue with fewer operational resources, neutralizing the natural effect of business expansion on NWC (Assaf Neto, 2020). The main factor driving this decrease was the 44.43% growth in supplier balances, which advanced from R$ 5.638 billion to R$ 8.143 billion, reflecting a deliberate strategy of extending payment terms.
Cash Cycle
The Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) is a crucial metric that measures the time the company’s capital remains tied up in operations. It is calculated from three components: the Average Collection Period (ACP), the Average Inventory Period (AIP), and the Average Payment Period (APP) (Assaf Neto, 2020). Optimizing these periods is fundamental to reducing the need for external financing and, consequently, the cost of working capital.
The analysis revealed a significant compression of Magazine Luiza’s Cash Conversion Cycle, which decreased by 62.2%, from 104.3 days in 2021 to 39.4 days in 2025. This reduction of 64.9 days in the period demonstrates effective management to free up capital. The Average Inventory Turnover Period (PMRE) was the component that contributed most to this compression, shrinking by 27.2 days, a reduction of 22.2%. This movement reflects a higher inventory turnover, indicating greater efficiency in inventory management and the speed of the commercial cycle (Assaf Neto, 2020).
The Average Payment Period to Suppliers (PMPF) also played a crucial role in reducing the Cash Conversion Cycle, expanding from 75.8 days in 2021 to 108.0 days in 2025, an increase of 32.2 days. This extension of payment terms represents a source of free operational financing, which contributes to the reduction of Working Capital and CCC (Assaf Neto and Lima, 2017). In contrast, the Average Sales Receipt Period (PMRV) showed a more modest reduction of 5.4 days, indicating that the consumer credit policy remained relatively stable throughout the period, without major changes that could impact the receipt of installment sales.
Cost of Working Capital Needs
To quantify the financial impact of Selic’s high cycles on NCG, the annual opportunity cost of NCG was calculated, which is the product of NCG and the Annual Average Selic. This indicator allows us to assess how variations in the interest rate and working capital management influence the company’s financial cost. The analysis of this cost is essential to understand the effectiveness of the mitigation strategies adopted by Magazine Luiza.
The opportunity cost of Magazine Luiza’s NCG showed a complex variation over the period. Between 2021 and 2022, the cost jumped 166.9%, driven exclusively by the tripling of the Selic rate, as the NCG fell only 3.5% in this interval, which was insufficient to offset the increase in interest rates. In 2021, the cost was R$ 414.256 million, rising to R$ 1.105 billion in 2022, reflecting the direct impact of the first Selic rate hike cycle.
Starting in 2023, active NCG management began to offset the effect of high interest rates. Even with the average Selic at 13.30% in 2023, the NCG cost decreased to R$ 853,430 million, a drop of 22.81% compared to the previous year. In 2025, despite the Selic reaching the highest average of the period (14.42% per year), the NCG cost was R$ 670,081 million, lower than in 2022, thanks to an NCG 47.3% smaller. This dynamic shows that the active reduction of NCG was crucial to cushion the impact of the cost of capital.
Counterfactual Analysis
Counterfactual analysis was performed to isolate the effects of active NCG management, comparing the effective cost of NCG in each year with a hypothetical cost the company would have incurred if NCG had remained at the 2021 level. This methodology allowed for the quantification of savings generated by Magazine Luiza’s proactive management, separating them from variations due to interest rates. The counterfactual approach is fundamental to demonstrating the value of managerial intervention in scenarios of monetary tightening.
The results of the counterfactual analysis revealed an accumulated saving of R$ 1.36 billion between 2022 and 2025, generated by the active management of NCG. This saving grew each year, with a highlight in 2025, when the difference between the actual cost of NCG and the hypothetical cost (with NCG fixed at 2021) reached R$ 645.7 million. This finding shows that Magazine Luiza’s operational and financial adaptability was able to more than offset the contractionary effect of interest rates on the company’s operational cycle, transforming a potential liability into a substantial financial gain.
Correlations
The application of Pearson’s correlation between the Selic rate and working capital indicators provided a deeper understanding of the relationships between monetary policy and Magazine Luiza’s financial management. Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables (Figueiredo Filho and Silva Júnior, 2009). The results corroborated previous observations, highlighting the mitigation strategies adopted by the company.
A strong negative correlation was found between the Selic and NCG (r = -0.69), CCC (r = -0.75), and the NCG/Net Revenue index (r = -0.74). These results indicate that periods of higher interest rates coincided with greater reductions in working capital needs and cash cycle duration, suggesting a direct managerial response to the increased cost of money. Magazine Luiza’s management adjusted its operations to minimize working capital exposure during times of higher financial cost.
The most expressive correlation was observed between the Selic and the Average Stock Renewal Period (PMRE), with a very strong negative coefficient (r = -0.98). This suggests that the interest rate hike cycles induced the company to accelerate stock turnover in an almost linear fashion, likely due to increased pressure on carrying costs. In contrast, the Average Supplier Payment Period (PMPF) showed a strong positive correlation with the Selic (r = +0.65), confirming that extending payment terms was a consistent and strategic response to monetary tightening cycles, utilizing supplier financing as a cash management tool.
The cost of NCG showed a moderate positive correlation with Selic (r = +0.68), which is below expectations if NCG remained stable. This result reinforces the conclusion that active NCG management mitigated the full pass-through of interest rates to the company’s operating cost. Finally, the Average Sales Receipt Period (PMRV) demonstrated a practically null correlation with Selic (r = -0.09), indicating that Magazine Luiza’s consumer credit policy was not significantly affected by interest rate cycles, remaining stable throughout the analyzed period.
In summary, the results obtained confirm that the two Selic rate hike cycles exerted significant pressure on Magazine Luiza’s working capital cost. However, the active and proactive management of NWC, manifested by a 49.07% reduction in total NWC and a 62.2% compression in the Cash Conversion Cycle, was able to significantly cushion these effects. The extension of payment terms to suppliers and the acceleration of inventory turnover were the main drivers of this reduction, resulting in accumulated savings of R$ 1.36 billion between 2022 and 2025, according to the counterfactual analysis. These findings demonstrate that operational and financial adaptability constitutes a strategic competitive advantage for companies intensive in working capital, allowing them to navigate environments of high monetary volatility.
4. Conclusion
This study analyzed the effects of high Selic rate cycles on the working capital management of Magazine Luiza S.A. between 2021 and 2025, seeking to identify the strategies adopted by the company to mitigate such impacts. It was found that the company’s Working Capital Requirement (WCR) decreased by 49.07% during the period, from R$ 9.124 billion to R$ 4.646 billion. Concurrently, the Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) was significantly compressed by 62.2%, decreasing from 104.3 to 39.4 days. This optimization was mainly driven by the extension of the Average Payment Period to Suppliers (APTS), which expanded by 32.2 days, and by the reduction of the Average Inventory Turnover Period (AITP) by 27.2 days, indicating an active and deliberate management of inventory and payment terms. The analysis of the opportunity cost of WCR revealed that, despite the Selic reaching its highest annual average in 2025, the cost was lower than in 2022, evidencing the effectiveness of the active reduction of WCR. The counterfactual analysis quantified an accumulated saving of R$ 1.36 billion between 2022 and 2025, generated by this proactive management. Pearson correlations corroborated these observations, indicating a very strong negative relationship between the Selic and the AITP (r = -0.98) and a strong positive relationship between the Selic and the APTS (r = +0.65), confirming that Magazine Luiza’s management adjusted its operations in direct response to the increase in the cost of money.
The main contribution of this work lies in demonstrating, empirically and methodologically structured, that active and proactive working capital management is capable of significantly cushioning the effects of a high interest rate environment on the operational costs of a large retailer. However, it is important to emphasize that business performance is a multidimensional phenomenon, and the conclusions presented here specifically reflect the effects of high Selic cycles on the operational management of Magazine Luiza’s working capital, not constituting a comprehensive assessment of the company’s performance. The results obtained, being from a single case study, cannot be directly generalized to other companies in the retail sector or other segments, given the particularities of each organization. Nevertheless, the study serves as a reference for future investigations on companies with similar profiles and for managers facing analogous monetary tightening scenarios, reinforcing that operational and financial adaptability represents an invaluable strategic competitive advantage for working capital-intensive companies.
Bibliographic References
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Article originating from the Final Course Work of the Specialization in Finance and Controllership of the MBA USP/Esalq
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