Executive Summary

March 02, 2026

Impact of Diesel Price Volatility on Transportation Companies’ Operational Costs

Jorge Augusto Teodoro de Souza; Andreza Maria Luzia Baldo de Souza

Summary prepared by the ResumeAI tool, an artificial intelligence solution developed by the Pecege Institute focused on synthesis and writing.

The objective of this research is to analyze the correlation between the volatility of diesel B S-10 and the operational costs of a Brazilian road transport company from 2018 to 2024, quantifying the impact of price fluctuations on total costs, revenue, and profit margin. The analysis offers a microeconomic perspective on a challenge affecting the national logistics chain. The relevance of the investigation is anchored in the centrality of road transport, a sector that, according to the National Confederation of Transport (CNT, 2022), moved R$ 1.5 trillion in 2021, corresponding to 13.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employing over 12 million professionals.

The instability in fuel prices was accentuated by the Import Parity Price (IPP) policy, which linked the domestic market to international quotes, resulting in frequent adjustments passed on to the consumer (Rangel, 2019). Although formally abolished in 2023, Petrobras’s new commercial strategy has not completely decoupled prices from international standards, maintaining unpredictability for sectors dependent on fossil fuels (Konchinski, 2024). This scenario justifies the analysis of its practical effects on the financial health of companies.

For carriers, cost management is an essential competitive advantage. In an environment where diesel prices fluctuate constantly, the ability to mitigate the financial impact of these oscillations becomes a differentiator for survival and profitability. Risk management, in this context, involves the pursuit of internal efficiency and the control of operational variables to protect profit margins, linking financial stability to the ability to manage cost volatility.

This study seeks to fill a gap in the literature, which often addresses the sector in an aggregated manner. There is a scarcity of works that investigate the internal financial reality of a small or medium-sized carrier, especially without tools such as active management through telemetry. By focusing on a real case, the research offers a detailed view of how a typical Brazilian company faces diesel price volatility, using its accounting and administrative management as primary control tools, providing practical insights for the market.

The methodology adopted was the case study, suitable for an in-depth investigation of the phenomenon in its real context (Prodanov and Freitas, 2013; Pereira et al., 2018). The research is applied in nature, with a quantitative approach and a descriptive-analytical character, focused on measuring the economic impacts of diesel consumption on the financial indicators of a transport company.

The data were collected from the company’s accounting and financial documents, such as balance sheets, income statements (DRE), and internal reports, covering the period from January 2018 to December 2024. This time window allowed for the capture of different economic scenarios, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent price escalation. The raw data were organized into spreadsheets for the construction of historical series.

The data analysis occurred in three stages. First, tabular systematization, with the elaboration of historical series for variables such as fuel cost, gross revenue, operational costs, and profit, calculating their relative proportions. The second stage was a descriptive temporal analysis to identify year-on-year variations and correlate financial events to the macroeconomic context. The third stage applied statistical tests for greater robustness. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to verify the strength of the linear relationship between diesel cost and other indicators (Triola, 2017) and simple linear regression to quantify its explanatory power (Pestana and Gageiro, 2014). The calculations were performed in Microsoft Excel 365, with a significance level of 5% (p < 0.05).

The analysis of the results begins with the formation of diesel prices in Brazil. Between 2018 and 2024, the price of Diesel A at the refinery was the dominant component, accounting for about 55% of the final value at the pump (ANP, 2018; 2020). This component, influenced by the PPI, captured the volatility of Brent oil and the exchange rate (Araújo e Silva, 2019). Other relevant components were biodiesel (about 8%), federal and state taxes (summed, 24%), and distribution and resale margins (13%). The company studied, without an internal supply point, is exposed to the final retail price, which amplifies its vulnerability.

The carrier’s financial data reveal the significant impact of diesel volatility. Between 2018 and 2024, the annual fuel cost showed accumulated growth of 303.5%, jumping from R$ 1.17 million to R$ 4.73 million. This increase was driven by a 145.1% rise in the volume refueled and a 64.5% increase in the average price per liter. Between 2018 and 2020, there was a 15.1% retraction in costs, associated with the drop in demand during the pandemic (Silva, 2023). From 2021 onwards, the trend reversed, with a 75.1% advance in expenditure, driven by a 57.7% rise in the average price. In the following years, cost pressure persisted; in 2022-2023, even with a drop in the price per liter, the nominal cost rose by 29.6% due to a 41.6% increase in the volume consumed.

The 145.1% growth in supplied volume raises questions about fleet efficiency. A limitation of the study, and a managerial weakness of the company, is the non-utilization of the telemetry technology installed in the vehicles. If activated, the tool would allow distinguishing the increase in consumption resulting from demand expansion from that originating from inefficient driving, such as engine over-revving or sudden acceleration. Without this data, management cannot intervene precisely to optimize consumption and mitigate the financial impact of high prices.

Diesel’s participation in total operating costs fluctuated significantly: it started at 16.6% in 2018, reached a peak of 29.7% in 2023, and closed at 20.1% in 2024. In years of strong price pressure such as 2022 and 2023, the fuel accounted for more than a quarter of operational disbursements. The same trend occurred in relation to gross revenue: diesel cost represented 5.4% of revenue in 2020, but scaled to 15.0% in 2022 and reached a peak of 16.0% in 2023. This demonstrates that the pressure of the input cost eroded an increasing share of revenue, impacting profitability.

The consequence was the compression of the operating margin. The company’s profitability proved volatile, with the margin oscillating from a peak of 68.2% in 2020 to an all-time low of 31.7% in 2024. The 2024 case is emblematic: even with record revenue of R$ 34.4 million, the company registered its lowest margin. This occurred because operating costs grew at a faster pace than revenue, neutralizing revenue gains. The escalation of costs, led by diesel, was the main factor in the deterioration of profitability.

The statistical analysis corroborates the strong dependence of the cost structure on diesel. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the cost of diesel and total operating costs was 0.91 (p = 0.004), indicating a very strong and statistically significant positive association. Simple linear regression analysis further deepens this finding, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.8281. This means that 82.8% of the variation in the company’s total operating costs can be explained by the variation in diesel expenses. The relationship with gross revenue also proved strong (r = 0.88; R² = 0.7744). In contrast, the correlation with operating profit was moderate and not significant (r = 0.41), indicating that profitability is affected by a more complex range of factors.

The analysis of cost-price elasticity reveals that the company, for the most part, was unable to offset price increases with operational gains. In periods such as 2021-2022 and 2023-2024, elasticity was greater than 1, indicating that total cost increased more sharply than the price per liter, evidencing strong growth in consumed volume. This dynamic confirms the sector’s high sensitivity to price fluctuations (Paula et al., 2019) and reinforces that diesel can represent more than 50% of total costs in long-distance operations (Péra, Costa, and Caixeta Filho, 2018). The cascading effect of this increase pressures the value of freight and the inflation of consumer goods (Fetranspar, 2022).

The strategic analysis via SWOT matrix reveals that the company has strengths (logistics planning, preventive maintenance), but faces critical weaknesses (diesel dependency, underutilization of technologies). Threats include fuel price volatility and lack of infrastructure for energy alternatives. Opportunities include incentives for sustainable fleets and the advancement of electric vehicles (Martin et al., 2024). The TOWS Matrix (Weihrich, 1982) suggests that the company operates in a survival strategy (ST: Strengths-Threats), using internal competencies to mitigate external threats. Business sustainability, however, requires a transition to a growth strategy (SO: Strengths-Opportunities).

The present research achieved its objective by quantitatively demonstrating the high sensitivity of the studied carrier to market fluctuations in diesel. The data showed a very strong statistical correlation (r = 0.91) between fuel cost and total operating costs, with the former explaining 82.8% of the variation in the latter. This relationship resulted in a severe compression of the profit margin, which reached its historical minimum in 2024, and an accumulated increase of over 300% in diesel expenses between 2018 and 2024. Given this scenario, the company operates under constant pressure from external threats, adopting a strategic survival approach, according to Weihrich’s (1982) TOWS Matrix, in which it uses its operational efficiency (Strength) to try to neutralize the volatility of input prices (Threat).

The long-term sustainability of the business, however, depends on the ability to transition to a more proactive strategic position. In the short term, the essential move is the full activation of technological resources such as telemetry to optimize consumption, added to the diversification of the type of cargo transported. In the long term, the transition to a diversified energy matrix, exploring alternatives such as biofuels or fleet electrification, represents the definitive strategic move to overcome the central weakness of dependence on fossil diesel. It is concluded that the objective was achieved: it was demonstrated that the volatility of

References:
National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels [ANP]. 2019. Weekly Synthesis of Fuel Price Behavior. Available at: <https://www. gov. br/anp/pt-br/assuntos/precos-e-defesa-da-concorrencia/precos/arq-sintese-semanal/2019/sintese-semanal-precos2019-ed38. pdf? >. Accessed on: May 25, 2025.
National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels [ANP]. 2020. Weekly Synthesis of Fuel Price Behavior. Available at: https://www. gov. br/anp/pt-br/assuntos/precos-e-defesa-da-concorrencia/precos/arq-sintese-semanal/2020/sintese-semanal-precos
2020-ed36. pdf >. Accessed on: May 25, 2025.
National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels [ANP]. 2021. Quarterly Bulletin of Fuel Prices and Volumes. Available at: <https://www. gov. br/anp/pt-br/centrais-de-conteudo/publicacoes/boletins-anp/boletins/btpvc-1/2021/boletim-trimestral-sdc-12-4t21vf. pdf >. Accessed on: May 28, 2025.
National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels [ANP]. 2022. Weekly Synthesis of Fuel Price Behavior. Available at: <https://www. gov. br/anp/pt-br/assuntos/precos-e-defesa-da-concorrencia/precos/arq-sintese-semanal/2022/dezembro/sintese-de-precos-no-49
semana-de-25-12-22-a-31-12-22. pdf? >. Accessed on: May 25, 2025.
National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels [ANP]. 2025. Weekly fuel price synthesis. Available at: < https://www. gov. br/anp/pt-br/assuntos/precos-e-defesa-da-concorrencia/precos/arq-sintese-semanal/2025/marco/sintese-precos-n13. pdf >. Accessed on May 28, 2025.
Akkartal, E.; Aras, G. Y. 2021. Sustainability in Fleet Management. Journal of Advanced Research in Economics and Administrative Sciences 2(3): p. 13-39, 2021.
Almulhim, A. I.; Hasan, M. A.; Aina, Y. A.; Sharifi, A.; Hassain, F. 2025. Priority measures for mitigating transport-related carbon emissions in Saudi Arabia: A multi-criteria analysis. Journal of Urban Management.
Araújo, A. B.; Silva, M. H. 2019. Technical and Economic Study of Diesel in Brazil. Graduation conclusion work in Chemical Engineering. School of Chemistry. Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.

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