Deferral of ICMS on the acquisition of natural gas as an input in aluminum extrusion

doi:10.22167/2675-6528-202603161

Article

October 09, 2026

Deferral of ICMS on the acquisition of natural gas as an input in aluminum extrusion

Deferral of ICMS on the Acquisition of Natural Gas as an Input in Aluminum Extrusion

Lucas de Andrade Dias; Milena Moscardini Nabelice Guasti Lima

DOI: 10.22167/2675-6528-202603161

Article derived from a Course Conclusion Work (TCC), with content based on the student’s original work and adapted to the editorial format of the E&S Magazine with the support of the ResumeAI tool, an artificial intelligence solution developed by Instituto Pecege for textual synthesis and organization.

Summary

Law No. 6.979/2015 of the State of Rio de Janeiro established a Special ICMS Tax Treatment, providing for deferral on domestic acquisitions of inputs intended for the industrial process. However, the absence of express mention of piped natural gas generated controversy regarding its classification within this regime. The study aimed to analyze whether natural gas used in aluminum extrusion could be classified as an input covered by the deferral and to measure the effects of this classification on the taxpayer’s cash flow. The research was developed as a case study, through an examination of legislation, doctrine, jurisprudence, and consultation solutions. Complementarily, a comparative cash flow modeling was applied in ordinary and deferred scenarios. The results indicated that natural gas, by acting directly on the thermochemical reactions of the production process, met the criterion of essentiality and relevance consolidated by the jurisprudence of the Superior Court of Justice. Financially, the modeling pointed to an estimated annual benefit of R$ 322,560.00 and an accumulated benefit of approximately R$ 2.26 million by 2032. It was concluded that the input is covered by the deferral regime, the enjoyment of which postpones the collection of ICMS to outgoing operations, reducing immediate financial outlay and representing a relevant instrument of tax management for industrial activity.

Keywords: Cash flow; Metallurgical industry; Tax planning; Tax deferral; Special tax treatment.

1. Introduction

The State of Rio de Janeiro, through Law No. 6.979/2015, established a Special ICMS Tax Treatment with the purpose of mitigating regional inequalities. This regime is aimed at industrial establishments located in areas of lower economic development in the state. Among the implemented mechanisms, the deferral of the tax on the acquisition of inputs intended for the production process stands out, which postpones the collection of the tax until the moment the industrialized products are sold.

However, the legislation generated controversy by prohibiting deferral for energy, water, and secondary materials, but not expressly addressing piped natural gas. This omission raised questions about the classification of natural gas under the deferral regime, given its nature and function in the industrial process.

The relevance of this discussion is accentuated in the aluminum extrusion sector, an activity that demands high consumption of natural gas. This input is used in the preheating furnaces for the billets, which require temperatures between 340°C and 530°C to impart the essential malleability for the extrusion process. Furthermore, natural gas is used in the aging furnaces for the extruded profiles, where it not only provides thermal energy but also participates in the reactions that impart the desired properties to the metal in the finished product (Associação Brasileira do Alumínio, 2021).

In this context, the correct classification of natural gas as an input has a direct impact on the taxpayer’s cash flow, as the deferral postpones the collection of ICMS. The Rio de Janeiro State Secretariat of Finance recognizes that the combination of deferral with consolidated collection in outgoing operations can generate effects equivalent to exemption for the preceding stage (Secretariat of Finance [RJ], 2023). The concept of input, for ICMS purposes, has been broadened by jurisprudence, which considers items essential and relevant to the taxpayer’s core activity as creditable, even if consumed gradually or as intermediate products (STJ, 2023).

The deferral of ICMS, in turn, constitutes a taxation technique that postpones the moment of tax collection to a later stage of the production chain, transferring the payment responsibility to the exit of the merchandise (Ataliba and Giardino, 1983). Although classically deferral transfers the tax burden, without reducing the amount due in the isolated operation (Coêlho, 2020), Law No. 6.979/2015, by combining deferral with the presumptive credit system, can result in a practical effect similar to exemption in the acquisition of the input.

Given the regulatory complexity and economic relevance, this scenario demands a systematic analysis of state legislation, doctrine, and jurisprudence. That said, the present study examines the legal framework of piped natural gas as an input covered by deferral and measures the resulting financial effects on industrial activity.

2. Material and Methods

This research was characterized as a case study, a modality used for the final course project. The methodological choice was guided by the need to normatively qualify natural gas as an input covered by the ICMS deferral, as established by Law No. 6.979/2015, and to measure the financial impact of this classification on the taxpayer’s cash flow.

The industrial establishment object of the study was identified only by the economic activity sector and by municipal location, in strict observance of institutional anonymization guidelines. The focus was on the aluminum extrusion sector, an activity that demands high natural gas consumption in its production process.

The research was developed on two complementary methodological fronts. The first, of a normative nature, made use of documentary research. This front was applied to federal and state legislation, to the regulatory acts of the Executive Branch, and to the consultation solutions issued by the State Secretariats of Finance of Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Santa Catarina.

Additionally, the documentary research covered the doctrine and jurisprudence of the superior courts. The doctrinal corpus included classic and contemporary works, with emphasis on the contributions of Carrazza (2024), Melo (2018), Ataliba and Giardino (1983), Baleeiro (1980), and Coêlho (2020).

The jurisprudential corpus consisted of paradigmatic decisions on the concept of input for the purposes of the Sales and Services Tax [ICMS], with emphasis on the Embargos de Divergência in Special Appeal No. 1.775.781/SP, judged by the First Section of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ, 2023). The documentary sources were accessed until June 17, 2025.

The normative analysis was structured around three main axes. The first examined the legal nature of deferral as a taxation technique, distinguishing it from a tax benefit in the strict sense. The second delved into the concept of input, analyzing the evolution from the restrictive criterion for credit to the expanded criterion of essentiality and relevance.

The third axis addressed the differentiation between natural gas, electric energy, and secondary materials, supported by ICMS doctrine and a comparative analysis of the legislation of Rio de Janeiro and the consultation rulings of other federative units. This approach allowed for a comprehensive examination of the legal framework for natural gas.

The second research front, of a quantitative nature, developed a comparative cash flow model. This model was applied to the case study, with the construction of scenarios from variations in operational premises, aiming to measure the financial effects of deferral.

For the sizing of this effect, the comparative cash flow model considered operational parameters of an industrial establishment based in Paracambi/RJ, dedicated to the manufacturing of extruded aluminum profiles. These parameters were built from average operational data of the sector and the tariffs practiced by the concessionaire distributing piped gas in the State of Rio de Janeiro.

Specifically, an average monthly consumption of 50,000 m³ of natural gas was adopted, with an average reference price from the distributing concessionaire of R$ 4.00/m³. The internal ICMS rate applicable to piped natural gas was 12%, and the average cycle between the acquisition of the input and the taxed output was established at 60 days. The discount rate used, corresponding to the accumulated annual reference Selic, was 12% p.a.

In the ordinary scenario, the ICMS was levied on the acquisition of natural gas from the concessionaire. In the deferred scenario, the tax was postponed for collection together with the sales, according to article 3, § 2º, of Law nº 6.979/2015. The modeling considered a temporal horizon for the regime’s validity until December 31, 2032, according to Law nº 10.640/2024.

Regarding ethical considerations, the research was framed within the hypotheses for exemption from submission to the Research Ethics Committee. This exemption was based on Article 1, sole paragraph, items II and VII, of CNS Resolution No. 510/2016, for exclusively using publicly accessible information, without any identification of the subjects involved.

3. Results and Discussion

The research results revealed that piped natural gas, when used in the aluminum extrusion process, qualifies as an essential input for ICMS deferral purposes, according to Law No. 6.979/2015. The legal analysis and financial modeling confirmed that this classification not only aligns with legislation and jurisprudence but also generates a positive and measurable financial impact on the taxpayer’s cash flow. The discussion was structured to address the legal regime of special tax treatment, the function of natural gas in the industrial process, the controversy regarding its classification, the nature of deferral, and, finally, the economic effects for the company.

Law No. 6.979, of March 31, 2015, established a Special Tax Treatment for ICMS in the State of Rio de Janeiro, aiming to reduce regional disparities. This regime grants tax benefits to industrial establishments located in specific municipalities, such as Paracambi. Among the exemption mechanisms, the deferral of ICMS on various operations stood out, including the import and domestic acquisition of machinery, equipment, and parts for fixed assets, as well as the import and domestic acquisition of raw materials and other inputs for the industrial process. However, the legislation explicitly excluded energy, water, and secondary materials from deferral, according to Article 3, item V.

Additionally, Law No. 6.979/2015 granted a presumed credit on merchandise sales operations, replacing the standard method of calculating credits and debits. This system allows for the application of a reduced rate of 2% on the value of outgoing operations, both domestic and interstate. This set of measures aims to foster industrial activity in the benefited regions, providing a more favorable tax environment and, consequently, boosting local economic development. The combination of these mechanisms is crucial to understanding the full impact of the tax system.

Legal regime of Law nº 6.979/2015

The legal regime established by Law No. 6.979/2015 provides for the deferral of ICMS on specific operations, with the objective of encouraging industrialization in less developed regions of the state of Rio de Janeiro. The benefited operations include the import and domestic acquisition of machinery and equipment for fixed assets, as well as the import and domestic acquisition of raw materials and other inputs for the industrial process. It is fundamental to note that the law established clear exceptions for energy, water, and secondary materials, generating the central controversy of this study regarding natural gas.

The concession of presumed credit, with a rate of 2% on sales, is a pillar of this special tax treatment. This measure simplifies tax calculation and, together with deferral, can generate a practical effect of exemption at the stage of acquiring inputs. Law No. 6.979/2015, therefore, not only postpones the collection of ICMS but also offers a substantial tax benefit that directly impacts the competitiveness of industries located in the areas covered by the regime.

Natural gas as an input in aluminum extrusion

Aluminum extrusion is a metalworking process that critically depends on the controlled heating of the aluminum billet. The Brazilian Aluminum Association (ABAL, 2021) describes that the metal must be heated to temperatures between 340°C and 530°C to achieve the necessary malleability. Piped natural gas is the primary input to reach these temperatures in preheating furnaces, allowing the billet to be pressed against a die to form the desired profile.

Besides preheating, natural gas is used in artificial aging furnaces for extruded profiles. At this stage, gas combustion is not limited to providing thermal energy, but also promotes physicochemical reactions that reorganize the aluminum structure. This reorganization is essential to impart the finished product with definitive mechanical properties, such as strength, which are indispensable for the manufacturing of items like chairs, ladders, and clotheslines. The direct participation in these reactions differentiates natural gas from a mere fuel.

The definition of “input”, according to Aliomar Baleeiro (1980), encompasses the productive factors essential for obtaining the final product, including raw materials and energy. Although part of the doctrine restricts the concept to intermediate products, natural gas, in this context, is indispensable. Its absence would make the industrial process of aluminum extrusion unfeasible, confirming its nature as an input. In the industrial establishment analyzed, piped natural gas is used exclusively in production, with the supply of other areas of the factory carried out by cylinders, which reinforces its classification as a production input.

Framing of natural gas in article 3, item V, of Law nº 6.979/2015

Article 3, item V, of Law No. 6.979/2015, establishes the deferral of ICMS for the domestic acquisition of raw materials, other inputs, and packaging materials, but expressly excludes energy, water, and secondary materials. The legal analysis demonstrated that piped natural gas does not fit into any of these exceptions. Electricity, for example, is equated to an autonomous good by the Federal Constitution (Carrazza, 2024; Melo, 2018), with its own tax regime, which does not apply to natural gas.

Natural gas, unlike electrical energy, is a tangible and consumable commodity, subject to the general ICMS (Sales and Services Tax) system. The interpretation that any input capable of generating energy through combustion would be excluded from deferral would empty the concept of input and compromise the rationality of the regime. Water, in turn, has a distinct tax system and a different nature from natural gas, which is used directly in industrial activity. Therefore, the prohibition for energy and water does not automatically extend to natural gas.

Furthermore, natural gas cannot be classified as a secondary material. Secondary materials, according to the law, are those that do not physically integrate into the final product nor participate in the physicochemical reactions of industrial transformation, such as lubricants or cleaning materials. Natural gas, by actively participating in the thermochemical reactions in aluminum extrusion, altering the properties of the raw material, clearly does not fit into this category of secondary materials. Its function is intrinsic and transformative, not merely auxiliary.

The intention of the Fluminense legislator to exempt natural gas from deferral, when desired, is evidenced in other legal diplomas. For example, State Decree No. 43.503/2012, which established the Special Tax Treatment for the copper production chain, explicitly excluded gas from the list of deferred inputs. This clarity in other laws demonstrates that the absence of express mention in Law No. 6.979/2015 does not imply its exclusion, but rather its inclusion in the list of benefited inputs.

Corroborating this interpretation, special regimes granted to automotive manufacturers in Rio de Janeiro, such as Nissan (Law nº 6.108/2011), Peugeot (Law nº 6.078/2011), Jaguar Land Rover (Law nº 6.662/2014), and MAN (Law nº 6.953/2015), expressly include natural gas among the inputs benefited by the ICMS deferral. This consistency in other state legislations reinforces the thesis that natural gas is an eligible input for deferral, when there is no explicit prohibition.

The guidance from tax administrations of other states also supports this conclusion. The Secretariat of Finance and Planning of the State of São Paulo, for example, recognized the right to ICMS credit for natural gas used in the production process (São Paulo, 2011; São Paulo, 2020). Similarly, the Secretariat of State Finance of Santa Catarina admitted natural gas as an input eligible for specific tax treatment when used as an industrial energy source (Santa Catarina, 2023). These state decisions demonstrate a convergence of understanding regarding the nature of natural gas as an input.

Finally, the classification of natural gas as an input is in line with the jurisprudential evolution of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ). In the judgment of Embargos de Divergência in Special Appeal No. 1.775.781/SP, the First Section of the STJ consolidated the criterion of essentiality and relevance. According to this criterion, inputs indispensable for the taxpayer’s core activity are creditable, even if they are gradually consumed or act as intermediate products (STJ, 2023). Natural gas, being essential for aluminum extrusion, fully meets this criterion.

Legal nature of the deferral and the systematic of the consolidated collection in the exit operation

The ICMS deferral, applied to the acquisition of natural gas under Law No. 6.979/2015, requires a deep understanding of its legal nature and the system of consolidated collection. Deferral, as a taxation technique, postpones the moment of tax payment to a later stage of the production chain, transferring the payment responsibility to the exit of the goods, as described by Ataliba and Giardino (1983). This postponement is a tax management mechanism that impacts cash flow.

The classical doctrine, as per Coêlho (2020), traditionally understands that deferral transfers the tax burden without reducing the amount due in the isolated operation. However, Law No. 6.979/2015 innovates by combining the deferral from Article 3 with the presumed credit system from Article 5. This combination, along with the express exclusion of Article 39 of Book I of the RICMS/RJ, results in a practical effect equivalent to an exemption on the acquisition of inputs, as the ICMS due is calculated at a reduced rate of 2% on the value of sales.

In the ordinary ICMS regime, the acquisition of inputs implies the payment of the tax embedded in the price, which is subsequently offset by the appropriation of the book-entry credit. However, in the special regime of Law No. 6.979/2015, there is no financial disbursement in the acquisition of inputs. The amount corresponding to the deferred ICMS is not collected separately upon subsequent sale, but is absorbed by the reduced rate of 2%. This represents a significant advantage for the taxpayer, optimizing their working capital and reducing the immediate tax burden.

Impact of natural gas deferral on taxpayer cash flow

The recognition of natural gas as an input covered by the deferral of Law No. 6.979/2015 has a direct and positive financial impact on the cash of the industrial taxpayer in Rio de Janeiro. The main effect is the elimination of ICMS disbursement at the time of acquiring natural gas from the distributing concessionaire. To quantify this benefit, a comparative cash flow model was developed, considering the operational parameters of an industrial aluminum extrusion establishment located in Paracambi/RJ.

The operational parameters used in the modeling, based on average industry data and utility tariffs in Rio de Janeiro, included an average monthly natural gas consumption of 50,000 m³ and an average reference price of R$ 4.00/m³. The internal ICMS rate applicable to piped natural gas was 12%, and the average cycle between the acquisition of the input and the taxed output was estimated at 60 days. The reference annual discount rate (Selic) was 12% per year, allowing for the evaluation of the opportunity cost of resources.

Based on these parameters, the gross monthly expenditure on natural gas totaled R$ 200,000.00. Of this amount, the ICMS incorporated into the price represented R$ 24,000.00, resulting from the application of an effective tax rate of 12%. In the deferred scenario, this monthly ICMS disbursement on acquisition is R$ 0.00. The annual projection indicated a avoided financial expenditure of R$ 288,000.00, without considering the opportunity cost of resources that are not immobilized. This amount already demonstrates substantial savings for the company.

By incorporating the opportunity cost of the released resources, using the reference rate of 12% per year, the annual financial benefit for the taxpayer reached R$ 322,560.00. This amount represents the direct gain from the ICMS deferral added to the return that the released capital could generate. The comparison between the ordinary and deferred scenarios, on a monthly and annual basis, revealed the magnitude of the benefit throughout the regime’s validity, which, according to Law nº 10.640/2024, extends until December 31, 2032.

The accumulated benefit until 2032 was estimated at approximately R$ 2,257,920.00, considering a seven-year horizon. To simplify the model, the projection assumed stable natural gas consumption, with no operational growth. It is important to note that this estimate did not consider the ICMS reduction foreseen by Constitutional Amendment No. 132/2023 from 2029 onwards, nor the impacts of the IBS and CBS regulation by Complementary Law No. 214/2025, which means that the actual benefits may be even greater or subject to future changes.

Variations in monthly consumption volume, as in scenarios of 10% annual production expansion, proportionally increase cost reduction. Under these conditions, the accumulated estimate by 2032 could reach approximately R$ 3.0 million. The results therefore demonstrate that the classification of natural gas under the deferral regime of Law No. 6.979/2015 produces a measurable, recurring, and highly beneficial financial effect on the taxpayer’s cash flow, configuring itself as a relevant tax management instrument.

4. Conclusion

This study analyzed the framework of natural gas used in aluminum extrusion as an input covered by the ICMS deferral, according to Law No. 6.979/2015, and measured its effects on the taxpayer’s cash flow. It was found that natural gas acts directly on the thermochemical reactions of the production process, both in the preheating of the billets and in the aging of the extruded profiles, conferring the desired properties to the metal. This intrinsic and transformative participation qualified it as an essential and relevant input, in line with the criterion consolidated by the jurisprudence of the Superior Court of Justice. The legal analysis demonstrated that natural gas does not fit into the exceptions for energy, water, or secondary materials provided for in the legislation, as its nature is distinct and its function is directly productive, not merely auxiliary or broadly energetic. The absence of an express prohibition in Law No. 6.979/2015, in contrast to other Fluminense legal diplomas, reinforced its inclusion in the list of benefited inputs.

In the financial plan, the comparative cash flow modeling indicated that the deferral of ICMS on the acquisition of natural gas generated an estimated annual benefit of R$ 322,560.00, with an accumulated value of approximately R$ 2.26 million by the end of the regime in 2032. This benefit arises from the postponement of tax collection for outgoing operations, where it is absorbed by the presumed credit system, resulting in a practical tax relief effect at the acquisition stage. The study’s main contribution lies in the legal elucidation and financial quantification of natural gas deferral, configuring it as a relevant tax management instrument that optimizes working capital and positively influences the financial structure of industrial activity. However, the financial projection considered stable consumption and did not incorporate the future reductions of ICMS foreseen by Constitutional Amendment No. 132/2023 from 2029 onwards, nor the impacts of the regulation of IBS and CBS by Complementary Law No. 214/2025. It is suggested that future studies explore consumption growth scenarios and integrate upcoming tax reforms for an even more comprehensive analysis of the benefits.

Bibliographic References

Associação Brasileira do Alumínio [ABAL]. 2021. Extrusão do Alumínio. ABAL, São Paulo, SP, Brasil. Disponível em: <https://abal.org.br/>. Acesso em: 17 jun. 2025.

Ataliba, G.; Giardino, C. 1983. ICM: linhas mestras constitucionais – o diferimento. Revista de Direito Tributário 23-24: 118-129.

Baleeiro, A. 1980. Direito Tributário Brasileiro. 10ed. Forense, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.

Carrazza, R.A. 2024. ICMS. 20ed. Malheiros, São Paulo, SP, Brasil.

Coêlho, S.C.N. 2020. Curso de Direito Tributário Brasileiro. 18ed. Forense, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.

Melo, J.E.S. 2018. ICMS: Teoria e prática. 14ed. Livraria do Advogado, Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil.

Santa Catarina. 2023. Consulta nº 48, de 2023. Operações com gás natural destinadas a contribuinte do imposto. Secretaria de Estado da Fazenda de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC. Disponível em: <http://legislacao.sef.sc.gov.br/>. Acesso em: 17 jun. 2025.

Secretaria de Fazenda [RJ]. 2023. Solução de Consulta nº 13, de 26 de maio de 2023. Regime Diferenciado de Tributação. Diferimento do ICMS. Interpretação Literal. Processo SEI-040079-001440-23. Secretaria de Estado de Fazenda do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ. Disponível em: <https://legislacao.fazenda.rj.gov.br/>. Acesso em: 17 jun. 2025.

Superior Tribunal de Justiça [STJ]. 2023. Embargos de Divergência em Recurso Especial nº 1.775.781/SP. Primeira Seção. Relator: Ministro Mauro Campbell Marques. Brasília, DF. Disponível em: <https://www.stj.jus.br/>. Acesso em: 17 jun. 2025.

São Paulo. 2011. Resposta à Consulta nº 62, de 30 de março de 2011. Direito ao crédito de ICMS referente à entrada de gás liquefeito de petróleo e gás natural. Secretaria da Fazenda e Planejamento do Estado de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP. Disponível em: <https://www.legisweb.com.br/legislacao/?id=266914>. Acesso em: 17 jun. 2025.

São Paulo. 2020. Resposta à Consulta nº 22136, de 23 de setembro de 2020. Industrialização por conta de terceiros. Insumos e material de uso e consumo. Secretaria da Fazenda e Planejamento do Estado de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP. Disponível em: <https://www.legisweb.com.br/legislacao/?id=404230>. Acesso em: 17 jun. 2025.

Article originating from the Final Course Work of the Specialization in Tax Management of the MBA USP/Esalq

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A gestão do tempo configura-se como um elemento essencial para a melhoria da produtividade e da qualidade das entregas, ao permitir a organização, priorização e execução eficiente das atividades, contribuindo diretamente para o alcance de metas e a otimização dos resultados no contexto profissional e pessoal. Objetivou-se compreender como práticas, ferramentas e técnicas de gestão do tempo, adotadas por instrutores de formação profissional rural e de promoção social, se associaram a dois desfechos centrais: a realização das atividades diárias planejadas e a percepção do impacto dessas práticas no bem-estar e produtividade. Os dados foram coletados por meio de questionário on-line estruturado, composto por 18 questões, e as análises foram realizadas no ambiente Python com bibliotecas estatísticas. Os resultados revelaram que a elevada formação acadêmica e maturidade profissional não se traduziu em maior eficácia na gestão do tempo. Observou-se amplo conhecimento sobre ferramentas e técnicas, mas sua utilização prática foi limitada e desigual. Ferramentas mais simples e intuitivas, como listas de tarefas, apresentaram maior adesão, enquanto técnicas que exigem transformações comportamentais, como a Técnica Pomodoro, tiveram baixa aplicação. Houve predominância do uso de soluções digitais, com destaque para o Google Agenda. Evidenciou-se uma percepção quase unânime de que a gestão do tempo influencia diretamente a produtividade e o bem-estar. Concluiu-se que a melhoria da gestão do tempo não dependeu exclusivamente da adoção de ferramentas e técnicas, mas, sobretudo, do desenvolvimento de habilidades práticas e comportamentais, aliado a ajustes nas condições de trabalho.

Palavras-chave: 5W2H; Matriz de Eisenhower; Matriz GUT; Multitarefa; Procrastinação.

October 09, 2026

Análise de Correspondência Aplicada a Dados Periciais: Identificação de Padrões Para Melhoria dos Serviços de Atendimento

A necessidade de otimizar recursos e compreender a complexa dinâmica criminal motivou a exploração de dados periciais, frequentemente subutilizados em laudos textuais. Aplicou-se a Análise de Correspondência Múltipla (ACM) em atendimentos periciais na Macrorregião de Bauru, SP. O objetivo foi investigar e identificar padrões de associação entre o tipo de ocorrência, o período do dia, o dia da semana e a localização, visando subsidiar decisões operacionais. Utilizaram-se dados da Superintendência da Polícia Técnico-Científica (SPTC), coletados entre maio de 2023 e janeiro de 2026. A metodologia englobou a limpeza, transformação e categorização das variáveis, além da construção de matrizes de contingência processadas em Python. A análise descritiva inicial revelou que furtos e colisões predominaram no volume total de ocorrências, enquanto crimes violentos, como homicídios, estupros e feminicídios, representaram uma parcela menor, mas demandaram tempos de resposta significativamente maiores. A ACM mapeou visualmente as correlações estruturais, demonstrando associações claras entre crimes noturnos e de finais de semana com regiões específicas. Identificaram-se dois agrupamentos principais: um perfil noturno e de fim de semana, associado a choques, atropelamentos e suicídios, com destaque para Bauru; e um perfil diurno em dias úteis, dominado por furtos e danos à propriedade. Demonstrou-se que o uso de técnicas exploratórias de aprendizado de máquina transformou dados periciais brutos em informações estratégicas vitais, fornecendo subsídios para a alocação eficiente de equipes e fundamentando a elaboração de políticas públicas baseadas em evidências.

Palavras-chave: Crimes violentos; Matriz de contingência; Priorização de serviços; Python; Tempos de resposta.

October 09, 2026

Predição do MVP da NBA com Técnicas de Aprendizado de Máquina

O prêmio de Most Valuable Player (MVP) da NBA possui grande relevância no basquete profissional, refletindo o reconhecimento de atletas e os padrões de votação. Um estudo desenvolveu e avaliou modelos de aprendizado de máquina supervisionado para prever o prêmio MVP da NBA, tratando o problema como uma tarefa de ordenação baseada na estimação do valor de “Share” da votação. Foram treinados e avaliados cinco algoritmos – Random Forest, LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost e NGBoost – utilizando dados históricos da NBA de 1996 a 2025, coletados do portal “Basketball Reference”. Os modelos foram testados nas temporadas de 2019 a 2025. O CatBoost alcançou o melhor desempenho na acurácia Top-5 (77,14%), identificando consistentemente os cinco principais candidatos. Random Forest, LightGBM e NGBoost empataram na acurácia Top-1 (42,86%), prevendo corretamente o vencedor em três das sete temporadas avaliadas. A análise de importância das variáveis indicou que o desempenho ofensivo individual, especialmente pontos por partida, e o desempenho coletivo da equipe, representado pelo percentual de vitórias, foram os principais determinantes das previsões. Os resultados demonstraram a viabilidade da abordagem proposta e seu elevado potencial para estudos futuros.

Palavras-chave: Aprendizado de máquina; Boosting; NBA; Predição esportiva; Random Forest.

October 09, 2026

O comportamento das gerações de consumidores digitais de materiais para construção: análise da Geração X

Analisou-se o comportamento da Geração X na compra de materiais para construção, considerando a articulação entre canais digitais e físicos e as percepções de varejistas e indústrias sobre esse processo. O objetivo foi investigar como esse público utiliza os canais digitais e físicos no processo decisório e relacionar os achados às respostas de varejistas e indústrias. Realizou-se uma pesquisa descritiva e exploratória, com abordagem quantitativa e interpretação qualitativa, por meio de três questionários aplicados a 37 consumidores, 25 varejistas e 25 representantes da indústria. Os dados de cada grupo foram analisados separadamente e, em seguida, relacionados por eixos temáticos. Os resultados indicaram que os consumidores da Geração X utilizam meios digitais para pesquisa e comparação, mas valorizam a loja física para contato com o produto, confiança e atendimento consultivo. Os varejistas reconheceram a transformação, mas apresentaram diferentes níveis de adaptação, enquanto as indústrias relataram uso heterogêneo de tecnologias e reconheceram seu papel de apoio ao varejo. Concluiu-se que o comportamento da Geração X se caracteriza por uma jornada híbrida, que exige maior integração entre os canais e os agentes da cadeia de materiais para construção.

Palavras-chave: Comportamento do consumidor; Geração X; Jornada de compra híbrida; Transformação digital; Varejo de materiais para construção.

Digital Business

October 09, 2026

Experiência do cliente digital e satisfação do consumidor em plataformas online

Um estudo analisou como as dimensões da experiência do cliente digital (controle percebido, conveniência do serviço, atendimento ao cliente e cumprimento dos serviços) influenciam a satisfação do consumidor em plataformas online para aquisição de produtos e serviços. Adotou-se uma abordagem quantitativa e descritiva, com dados primários coletados entre 02 e 13 de fevereiro de 2026, por meio de escalas validadas aplicadas a consumidores de e-commerce. A amostra, definida por conveniência, contemplou diversos perfis de usuários. Realizou-se análise descritiva para caracterização dos respondentes, seguida de análises de correlação e regressão linear múltipla para verificar as relações entre as variáveis. Os resultados evidenciaram que as dimensões Conveniência do Serviço, Cumprimento dos Serviços e Atendimento ao Cliente apresentaram associação positiva e estatisticamente significativa com a satisfação do consumidor. O Controle Percebido, contudo, não demonstrou influência significativa no modelo estimado. Esses achados contribuíram para a compreensão das relações entre a experiência digital e a satisfação do consumidor em plataformas de e-commerce.

Palavras-chave: Análise multivariada; Comércio eletrônico; Comportamento do consumidor; Experiência do usuário; Qualidade do serviço.

Neuroscience And Learning In Education

October 09, 2026

Fundamentos para estruturação de currículos baseados em habilidades de raciocínio

Nas últimas décadas, observou-se uma transição educacional de modelos focados em conteúdo para o desenvolvimento de competências, impulsionada pela ubiquidade da informação. Nesse contexto, as habilidades de raciocínio tornaram-se pedagogicamente cruciais por embasarem a compreensão, relação e adaptação de conteúdos em cenários complexos. Com base nessa perspectiva, buscou-se consolidar um modelo detalhado das habilidades que compõem o raciocínio cognitivo, visando servir de base para a elaboração de currículos e programas pedagógicos. Para tanto, realizou-se uma pesquisa qualitativa e exploratória, que envolveu uma síntese multidisciplinar de conhecimentos da filosofia da mente, epistemologia, semiótica, psicologia cognitiva e neurociência. Essa abordagem proporcionou uma visão abrangente da natureza e das funções do raciocínio humano. O modelo resultante classificou as habilidades em quatro funções cognitivas principais, subdivididas em níveis crescentes de complexidade, que acompanharam o desenvolvimento cognitivo humano. A estrutura final mostrou-se bem fundamentada e aplicável à elaboração de currículos e programas pedagógicos, oferecendo uma taxonomia de habilidades do raciocínio diretamente utilizável no sequenciamento instrucional e na avaliação de competências cognitivas.

Palavras-chave: Currículo baseado em competências; Desenvolvimento cognitivo; Habilidades cognitivas; Pensamento crítico; Raciocínio cognitivo.

Marketing

October 09, 2026

Bitcoin ou pets: o que a Inteligência Artificial não veria

Um caso real de consumer intelligence mostra o que fica fora do briefing Há alguns anos, uma seguradora americana contratou uma empresa especializada em consumer intelligence para responder a três perguntas: A seguradora também avaliava lançar seguros pagos em bitcoin. Na época, o processo de trabalho da consultoria funcionava assim: o analista criava uma query […]

School Management

October 06, 2026

The school is not a casino: when trading cards become currency in the playground

Why, for certain students, does school manage to offer so few experiences of achievement? The World Cup is over. Brazil left the competition, the school holidays came, the final was played and the football calendar moved on. It would be reasonable to imagine that, with the end of the tournament and the return to classes, […] would also begin

Energy Transition

September 30, 2026

Renewable energies: the Brazilian advantage

Brazil needs to invest in the capacity to transform natural resources into innovation, productivity, and development. Talking about energy is talking about development. Behind industry, transportation, services, cities, and increasingly artificial intelligence, there is an energy infrastructure that sustains the economy. Understanding a country’s energy matrix is understanding […]

Data Analysis

September 30, 2026

When the data changes, has reality changed?

An analysis of almost 20 million teaching positions-year between 2020 and 2025 shows how changes in population composition and record production can alter the interpretation of historical series Between 2020 and 2025, the number of formal teaching employment positions identified in RAIS (Annual Relation of Social Information), from the Ministry of Labor, […]

Artificial Intelligence

September 28, 2026

Artificial intelligence and the trends

Why do so many people join in on the fun with ChatGPT? I was never the trend person. I still am not. Some pass through my timeline, I see them, I find them interesting but not to the point of trying them out. This was the case, inclusive, with some recent waves of images made by artificial intelligence, like the 80s trend, the one that […]

Project Management

September 25, 2026

AI accelerates answers; who makes the decisions?

The speed of technology only becomes an advantage when it is accompanied by the capacity to understand, verify, and assume responsibility for the results. Imagine a team that starts producing in an afternoon the analyses that previously required a week. The change seems to justify the investment in artificial intelligence. But, before counting the gain, it is worth asking who examined […]

Innovation

September 14, 2026

We do not just read words

As new codes, technologies, and forms of communication expand what we need to learn to interpret. Being literate is usually understood initially as: recognizing letters, forming words, comprehending sentences, and producing texts. For a long time, it was mainly from this domain that we defined what it meant to know how to read and, consequently, to participate in different spaces of society. […]

Social Networks

September 14, 2026

The effect of influence on consumption

What the Youpix/Nielsen 2026 survey shows about the advancement of the Creator Economy In 2025, 80% of Brazilian consumers bought some product recommended by influencers. In 2026, the rate reached 81%. The stability at such a high level indicates that purchasing by influence is no longer a behavior restricted to certain audiences. The […]

Call For Papers

September 11, 2026

Call for papers – Thematic Issue People Management

Submissions open from 09/11/2026 to 09/30/2026 Submissions are open for the Thematic Call People Management 2026, from the magazine Estratégias & Soluções (E&S). The call will be organized into two editorial streams: Stream 1 – Outstanding final papers from the MBA USP/Esalq Destined for the TCCs of the People Management course of the MBA USP/Esalq that obtained […]

Tax Management

September 01, 2026

Tax reform and estate planning in the countryside

Efficiency in managing taxes facilitates governance and allows for the organization of family succession. Rural wealth organization has become a strategic measure in light of the tax reform in Brazil, which came into effect this year. The planning of activities and rural wealth management, through tools such as the transition from an Individual to […]

Renata de Gaspari Valdejão Almeida

Artificial Intelligence

August 05, 2026

Inside the company and off the radar: the risks of Shadow AI

According to Microsoft, 75% of professionals already use artificial intelligence at work without company approval. The use of generative artificial intelligence is already part of the corporate routine. Tools like ChatGPT, Copilot, and other platforms help professionals produce texts, analyze data, create presentations, and accelerate tasks in practically all sectors. But this advance […]

Renata de Gaspari Valdejão Almeida

Strategy

July 02, 2026

The future as a competence

Academic interest reinforces the projection of scenarios as an essential tool for decision-making. While some companies are still trying to get the next step right, others are already working with multiple possible futures — and preparing for all of them. But after all, what does it mean to “think about the future”? Is it a trend, a strategy, or a new competence that […]

Renata de Gaspari Valdejão Almeida

Innovation

Technology

May 21, 2026

Agro SP Corridor: innovation, institutional articulation and future

Pecege commands the executive operation of the 400 km ecosystem activities that became known as the Brazilian agro Silicon Valley In 2025, in addition to taking over the management of the Piracicaba Technology Park, the Pecege Institute was also designated to command the executive operation of the State Agribusiness Innovation Corridor activities, the so-called […]

Education

April 27, 2026

How to turn a TCC into a business

New management of the Piracicaba Technology Park offers consulting to MBA graduates The new project director of the Piracicaba Technology Park (PTP), Alexandre Barreto, often says that one of the greatest rewards he has ever had in life was seeing his MBA USP/Esalq students structure companies from their final projects […]

Technology

March 20, 2026

The human repertoire in the age of AI

Critical thinking and creativity are irreplaceable in the work of a marketing professional Artificial Intelligence (AI) is capable of incredible feats, but it does not yet possess the judgment, empathy, intuition, and strategic creativity necessary to do the job of a good marketing professional. In this area, it is important to know how to use the tool to automate […]

Renata de Gaspari Valdejão Almeida

Agribusiness

Innovation

February 23, 2026

ESG as a growth strategy in a cooperative in RS

Santa Clara balances social and environmental responsibility with innovation Founded in 1911 by Italian immigrants in Carlos Barbosa, in the Serra Gaúcha region, Cooperativa Santa Clara is an example that it is possible to balance economic growth with social and environmental responsibility. From a small cheese production company, the organization has evolved into a […]

Renata de Gaspari Valdejão Almeida

Agribusiness

Innovation

January 22, 2026

Brazil free of Foot-and-Mouth Disease: what changes for Brazilian beef?

With a herd of over 200 million head of cattle, the country is currently the leader in exports. Brazil recently received, for the first time, the certification of country free of foot -and-mouth disease without vaccination, conferred by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH). The seal strengthens the country’s position as a reliable supplier of meat for the […]

Renata de Gaspari Valdejão Almeida

Innovation

December 09, 2025

Innovation: the new cycle of the Piracicaba Technology Park

Instituto Pecege assumes management, betting on the creation of new businesses Starting in 2026, Instituto Pecege will assume the management of the Piracicaba Technology Park (PTP). Among its responsibilities will be the administration, operation, maintenance, and expansion of the park, in addition to fostering activities in innovation, entrepreneurship, and science and technology. The choice was made […]

Renata de Gaspari Valdejão Almeida

July 06, 2026

Large-Scale Architecture: DSR-SCRUM Change Management

Mônica Alessandra Guerios; Maria do Carmo Assis Todorov Abstract generated by ResumeAI, an artificial intelligence solution developed by Instituto Pecege focused on synthesis and writing. Architecture and urbanism are configured as essential bases in an increasingly complex and challenging urban space, where the intrinsic connection between social, environmental, and technological issues […]