
Economy
Financial Management
September 03, 2025
USA vs. Brazil: how to protect investments?
Economic forecasting specialist analyzes the scenario and makes recommendations to companies and investors
Tariffs of 50% imposed on part of Brazilian exports to the United States came into effect in August 2025. The measure affects 36% of goods sent to the US market, including coffee, fruits, and meats.
The chief economist at ADAM CAPITAL, Juliano Cecílio, prefers to call the measure a sanction. For him, its character is more political than commercial, and President Donald Trump’s intention is to exert geopolitical pressure — a strategy already observed in his previous terms, against countries like China and Iran.
The consequence for the Brazilian economy is a possible readjustment of exports and a greater domestic supply of these products, which may contain inflation in the short term, but harm the trade balance and companies listed on the Stock Exchange further down the line.
What does all this mean for the global economic scenario? How can ordinary citizens and companies in Brazil protect themselves from the potential turbulence that this scenario may cause? For Cecílio, this is a moment of great risk for companies. “There may be, in case of an escalation of the geopolitical dispute, an even more serious sanction [in terms of direct US investment in Brazil],” he says. His advice is to postpone the most relevant investment decisions for now. “At least until the election.”
For those who have some financial reserve, he suggests allocating a portion of the money to American stocks or stocks from other countries. “The average Brazilian has a strong bias towards only investing in things from here, and Brazil is a very unpredictable country.” Click below and follow Juliano Cecílio’s chat with presenter Soraia Fessel to stay on top of the developments of this story.
About the interviewee
Juliano Cecílio is a Partner and Chief Economist at ADAM CAPITAL, specializing in macroeconomics and economic forecasting.
Who published this videocast
Renata de Gaspari Valdejão Almeida







