Fernanda Karollyne Saboia do Nascimento; Edson Pereira da Mota

DOI: 10.22167/2675-6528-202600796

Article prepared by the ResumeAI tool, an artificial intelligence solution developed by the Pecege Institute focused on synthesis and writing.

Abstract

Soybean production in Maranhão has gained relevance in Brazilian agribusiness, driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier and interaction with the North Arch export corridors, making logistics a central element for product flow. The study analyzed the main logistical challenges faced in the soybean production chain in Maranhão, with an emphasis on storage infrastructure and transportation systems used, seeking to relate production and storage data, characterize the available infrastructure, and identify transportation challenges. The research used secondary data from official institutions and associations through documentary research. A growth of 131.99% in soybean production was observed between the 2014/15 and 2024/25 harvests, while storage capacity grew by 51.69% in the same period. A positive and significant correlation was observed between production and storage capacity (r=0.71; p=0.014; R2=0.50), but the storage/production ratio was below 100% after the 2019/20 harvest, indicating a storage deficit in the state. The road transport mode predominated on precarious highways, despite the railway potential. Soybean exports from the state reached 5,054 thousand tons in 2025, with 71.6% destined for China via the Port of Itaqui. It was concluded that investments in storage, road maintenance, and intermodality are essential for the competitiveness of Maranhão’s soybeans in the national scenario.

Keywords: Storage; Infrastructure; MATOPIBA; Transportation.

1. Introduction

Soybeans have consolidated themselves as one of the most important agricultural crops globally, driven by their economic value and growing demand (Reis et al., 2025). The sector has undergone significant transformations, with technological innovations and improvements in agricultural management (Péra and Caixeta Filho, 2017). To ensure sustainability and productive stability, it is essential to understand the context of each producing region, with special attention to the logistical aspects of the chain (Balbinot Junior et al., 2022).

In Brazil, Maranhão has emerged as a relevant hub for soybean production, with a significant expansion of cultivated area since the late 1970s. This growth was driven by factors such as the development of technologies for the Cerrado, the migration of producers to the MATOPIBA agricultural frontier, and tax incentives (Feitosa et al., 2023). Soybean production in the state reached 4,858.3 thousand tons in the 2024/2025 harvest, representing an increase of 131.39% compared to the 2014/2015 harvest, while the cultivated area almost doubled in the same period (Conab, 2026a).

Despite the expressive growth in production, Maranhão’s logistics infrastructure has not kept pace, generating challenges for the efficient outflow of the harvest (Péra and Caixeta Filho, 2017). Logistical inefficiency, especially in storage and transportation, compromises the competitiveness of the soybean chain. Although Maranhão is strategically positioned in the Northern Arc, with access to multimodal transport and the Port of Itaqui, the potential for outflow to international markets (Buss et al., 2019) is underutilized due to inadequate infrastructure.

Storage is crucial for grain quality and supply and demand management (CNA, 2023), and in Maranhão, total static capacity grew by 51.69% between 2015 and 2025, reaching 4,181.8 thousand tons (Conab, 2026b). However, farm-level capacity grew by only 13.63% in the same period, indicating that most of the expansion occurred in commercial warehouses. This disparity and the mismatch between production growth and storage capacity generate a deficit, forcing premature sales and impacting producers’ margins (CNA, 2023). Qualitative problems and a lack of qualified labor are also challenges (Sousa, 2021). Initiatives such as the Program for the Construction and Expansion of Warehouses (PCA) seek to mitigate this problem (MAPA, 2024).

Soybean transportation in Maranhão is predominantly by road, a mode that faces infrastructure problems, resulting in high costs and inefficiency (Nascimento, 2016), and the storage deficit intensifies pressure on roads, generating bottlenecks and increased freight costs (Ramos et al., 2024). Although the state has multimodal potential with railways such as Norte-Sul and Estrada de Ferro Carajás, in addition to the strategic Itaqui Port, the integration and optimization of these modes are still challenges. Improving transport infrastructure and promoting intermodality are essential to reduce logistics costs and increase the competitiveness of Maranhão’s soybeans in global markets (Buss et al., 2019; Russo et al., 2023).

The analysis of logistical challenges in the soybean chain of Maranhão is fundamental to optimize the flow of production, reduce losses, and strengthen the competitiveness of the state’s agribusiness. The gap between production growth and the development of logistical infrastructure justifies this study, providing subsidies for strategic planning and decision-making. Thus, this work aims to analyze the main logistical challenges faced in the soybean production chain in Maranhão, with an emphasis on storage infrastructure and the transportation systems used, seeking to relate data on production and storage, characterize the available infrastructure, and identify and analyze the main challenges related to transportation.

2. Material and Methods

The present study was characterized as documentary research, of a quantitative and descriptive nature, with an exploratory approach for the analysis of relationships. The unit of analysis was the state of Maranhão, focusing on the soybean production and marketing chain. The investigation covered a temporal scope from 2015 to 2025, using annual historical series for temporal comparison and the identification of possible relationships between productive expansion and the available logistics infrastructure in the state.

Data on the planted area, productivity, and soybean production in Maranhão, covering the harvests from 2014/2015 to 2024/2025, were collected from historical series published by the National Supply Company (Conab, 2026a). For the same period, information on the state’s static storage capacity was obtained from the Portal de Armazéns do Brasil (Brazilian Warehouses Portal), a platform maintained by Conab (2026b). This portal integrates data from the National Cadastro of Warehousing Units System (SICARM), which identifies public and private warehousing units.

Information on transport infrastructure, including cargo movement in road, rail, and water transport, and export data were extracted from publications and statistical dashboards. Sources included the National Confederation of Transport (CNT), the National Land Transport Agency (ANTT), the National Association of Railway Carriers (ANTF), and the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (MDIC). Complementary data on port operations at the Port of Itaqui and on industrial soybean processing capacity in the state were also collected from official sectoral sources.

After collection, the data were organized and consolidated into spreadsheets. Variables of interest included area, productivity, soybean production, static storage capacity, and export volumes. This initial organization allowed for the structuring of the historical series necessary for subsequent analyses, ensuring the foundation for the construction of indicators and the evaluation of the relationships proposed by the study.

Based on historical series, indicators were constructed to highlight the mismatch between productive growth and the supply of storage structures. The cumulative static capacity growth rate in the analyzed period was calculated. This indicator was obtained by the difference between the static capacity of the final year and the static capacity of the initial year, divided by the initial static capacity and multiplied by one hundred.

Additionally, to measure the compound growth over the years, the average percentage growth rate was calculated. This calculation involved the nth root of the ratio between the final and initial static capacity, subtracting one and multiplying by one hundred. Where “n” represented the number of years in the analyzed period, allowing a view of the average annual evolution of storage capacity.

Another indicator constructed was the ratio between static storage capacity and annual soybean production. This indicator allowed for the evaluation of the adequacy of storage infrastructure in relation to the volume produced. The analysis of this ratio over time was fundamental to identifying periods of deficit or surplus in the state’s storage capacity.

To evaluate the relationship between soybean production and storage capacity in Maranhão, Pearson correlation coefficients were estimated. This exploratory analysis sought to quantify the strength and direction of the linear association between the annual series of soybean production, expressed in thousands of tons, and the static storage capacity, also in thousands of tons, over the studied period.

Complementarily, a simple linear regression model was adjusted. In this model, soybean production was defined as the explanatory variable, and storage capacity as the dependent variable. The objective was to verify the direction and magnitude of the association between these variables over time, with a significance level of five percent adopted for inferential statistical analysis.

All data processing steps, including the organization of historical series, the construction of indicators, the preparation of tables, and the calculations of correlation and simple linear regression, were performed using spreadsheets, specifically the Microsoft Excel software. This program was used for the manipulation and analysis of the collected datasets.

3. Results and Discussion

The research analyzed the main logistical challenges faced in the soybean production chain in Maranhão, with an emphasis on storage infrastructure and transportation systems used. The findings reveal a significant expansion in soybean production in the state over the last decade, which has generated considerable pressure on the existing logistical infrastructure. Although this growth is economically advantageous, it highlights a critical imbalance between the rapid increase in production and the slower development of essential support systems, particularly in storage and transportation. The subsequent discussion details these dynamics, connecting the observed trends with their implications for the competitiveness and sustainability of the Maranhão soybean sector.

Evolution of soybean production in Maranhão

Soybean production in Maranhão showed expressive growth in the period from 2014/2015 to 2024/2025, consolidating the state as a relevant player in Brazilian agribusiness. The cultivated area expanded from 749.6 thousand hectares to 1,436.1 thousand hectares, representing an increase of 91.58%. Concurrently, the average productivity per hectare rose from 2,801 kg to 3,383 kg, culminating in a total production that jumped from 2,099.6 thousand tons to 4,858.3 thousand tons, an increase of 131.39% (Conab, 2026a). This growth was particularly accelerated from the 2020/2021 harvest onwards, with the variables of area, productivity, and production exhibiting upward and sustained trajectories, indicating that soybean production more than doubled in the analyzed period.

This advance in soybean production positions Maranhão as a major producer within the MATOPIBA region, contributing 21.27% of the agricultural production achieved by this agricultural frontier. The productive expansion, although positive for the state’s economy, imposes significant challenges on the existing logistical infrastructure. The Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA, 2023) emphasizes that record grain harvests, such as those observed in Maranhão, intensify pressure on storage and transportation systems, requiring continuous adaptation and investment to avoid bottlenecks and losses. The competitiveness of agribusiness agents is directly linked to the ability to reduce production, processing, and, crucially, logistical costs, which demands attention to supply chain efficiency.

Storage capacity and relationship with production

Storage constitutes a fundamental pillar in the agricultural chain, directly influencing grain quality, coordination between supply and demand, seasonality management, and producer profitability (CNA, 2023). In 2025, Maranhão registered 192 warehouses, with a total static capacity of 4,181.7 thousand tons, with the majority, 4,092.9 thousand tons, allocated to bulk grains, and 88.9 thousand tons for packaged products (Conab, 2026b). The evolution of total static storage capacity in the state, between 2015 and 2025, showed accumulated growth of 51.69%, increasing from 2,756.8 thousand tons to 4,181.8 thousand tons, with an average annual growth rate of 4.25%.

However, farm-level storage capacity showed significantly lower growth in the same period. It evolved from 818.5 thousand tons to 930 thousand tons, an accumulated increase of only 13.63%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.29%. This disparity is notable, as total storage capacity was 349.6% higher compared to farm capacity over the period, indicating that most of the expansion was concentrated in commercial warehouses. The low participation of farm-level storage, which represented only 22.24% of the total in 2025, suggests that producers predominantly rely on commercial warehouses, which can compromise inventory management and force immediate marketing of production (Buss et al., 2019).

The relationship between static storage capacity and soybean production in Maranhão has revealed a growing mismatch. The storage/production ratio fluctuated between 228.66% in the 2015/2016 harvest, a year of atypical production due to drought, and 71.17% in the 2023/2024 harvest, which recorded the lowest relative storage capacity in the series. From the 2019/2020 harvest onwards, this ratio has remained consistently below 100%, indicating a relative storage deficit that is insufficient to accommodate the state’s soybean and other grain production. This dynamic is reinforced by the observation that soybean production has been growing faster than static storage capacity, especially after 2020, which exacerbates the situation.

Statistical analysis demonstrated a positive and significant correlation between soybean production and static storage capacity in Maranhão, with a Pearson coefficient of 0.71 and a p-value less than 0.05, resulting in an R² of 0.50. This means that, although there is a relationship between the variables, the growth in storage capacity did not keep pace with production proportionally. For each one million ton increase in production, storage capacity increased by 0.26 million tons, evidencing that the infrastructure, although it kept up to some extent, was not sufficient to fully meet the productive expansion. This storage deficit forces premature commercialization, compromising producers’ margins and supply management (CNA, 2023).

The storage deficit in Maranhão reinforces a logistical vulnerability, especially during harvest peaks, when the limited availability of warehouses can lead to early marketing and product value loss. Sousa (2021) points out that, in addition to insufficient static capacity, existing warehouses may present aeration and thermometry problems, and there is a shortage of qualified labor. Investment in storage is high, which hinders keeping pace with production growth, especially in agricultural frontier regions. Brazil, in general, faces a storage deficit, with MATOPIBA contributing 7.8% of the national static capacity, which generates lost marketing opportunities and increases the volatility of road freight (CNA, 2023).

To mitigate these challenges, public authorities play a crucial role in stimulating the modernization of storage and reducing losses at the rural level, acting as an inductor of investments (Brasil, 1991; Sousa, 2021). The Program for the Construction and Expansion of Warehouses (PCA), part of the Safra Plan, offers subsidized credit lines for producers and cooperatives, aiming at the construction, modernization, and renovation of warehouses. In the 2024/2025 harvest, the PCA made approximately R$ 7.8 billion available for financing, with interest rates of 8.5% per year and terms of up to ten years, with limits of R$ 50 million per beneficiary and R$ 200 million per cooperative (MAPA, 2024). These initiatives are essential to strengthen storage infrastructure and ensure greater competitiveness.

Besides soybeans, Maranhão also plays a significant role in the production of other crops, such as corn, rice, sorghum, cotton, and cowpea beans, which reached 3,412.4 thousand tons in 2024/2025. The total grain production in the state reached 8,792.4 thousand tons in 2024/2025, exceeding the static storage capacity by 110.25%. This demonstrates a clear and incontestable storage deficit for the set of grains produced in the state, which intensifies the pressure on logistics infrastructure and the need for integrated solutions for crop outflow (CNA, 2023).

Infrastructure and transport flows in Maranhão

Transportation logistics in Maranhão are marked by the predominance of the road modal, which, despite its flexibility, faces serious infrastructure challenges. The state and federal highways in Maranhão are in precarious conditions, with the presence of potholes, erosion, and critical points that compromise trafficability and increase logistical costs (Nascimento, 2016; Silva et al., 2023). In 2025, the National Confederation of Transport (CNT, 2026b) identified 489 occurrences of critical points on federal highways and 477 on state highways, highlighting the urgent need for investments in maintenance and improvement of the road network to ensure efficient outflow of production.

The storage deficit intensifies pressure on road transport, as the absence of adequate warehouses forces immediate marketing and rapid outflow of production, generating bottlenecks and increased freight costs during harvest peaks (Ramos et al., 2024). The formation of truck queues at ports and the need for cargo scheduling contribute to inefficiency and operational costs. Soliani and Camargo Júnior (2015) highlight that the implementation of cargo scheduling systems is crucial to optimize port flow and reduce congestion, mitigating the negative impacts on the Maranhão soybean supply chain.

Despite the road predominance, Maranhão possesses significant multimodal potential, especially in the Center-North Corridor. The Norte-Sul Railway (FNSTN) and the Carajás Railway (EFC) are strategic components of this corridor, connecting grain-producing regions to the Port of Itaqui. The FNSTN, with 720 km, links Porto Nacional/TO to Açailândia/MA, operated under private concession, while the EFC, with 892 km, connects Carajás/PA to São Luís/MA. Both railways transport ore, cellulose, and grains, including soybeans (ANTF, 2026a), demonstrating the capacity for large-volume cargo outflow.

Soybean rail transport in Maranhão has shown growth, increasing from 1,233.72 thousand tons in 2015 to 2,241.21 thousand tons in 2025, an 81.66% increase in ten years. However, this expansion has not kept pace with the growth in soybean production, indicating that the rail potential is still underutilized. Intermodality, which integrates different modes of transport, is essential for a more efficient logistics solution, reducing costs and pollutant gas emissions (CNA, 2023; Buss et al., 2019). The Port of Itaqui, a public port with private terminals, is a strategic point for soybean outflow, with multimodal connections that make it a logistics hub for international markets (EMAP, 2026a).

In 2025, the Port of Itaqui handled 36,880.8 thousand tons, with 15,853.7 thousand tons of soybeans originating from various states, including Maranhão, Tocantins, Mato Grosso, Piauí, Pará, Bahia, Goiás, Distrito Federal, and Paraná (EMAP, 2026b). The port’s strategic location, with access to North American, European, and Asian markets, reinforces the importance of continuous investments in its infrastructure to optimize production flow. Improving transportation infrastructure and promoting intermodality are crucial for reducing logistical costs and increasing the competitiveness of Maranhão’s soybeans in global markets (Buss et al., 2019; Russo et al., 2023).

Rail and water transport modalities are more competitive for higher value-added cargo, such as agricultural products, and for large volumes that need to travel long distances to reach their destination. They offer greater cargo capacity, lower CO2 emissions per unit of cargo transported, and a lower risk of accidents, resulting in economic and environmental benefits for agribusiness (CNA, 2023). In this context, new transport infrastructure projects must keep pace with soybean production in the state, which can be made feasible through governmental planning and investment with public-private partnerships for the operation of new intermodal routes, as well as for the expansion and maintenance of existing ones.

Exports and consumption of soybeans from Maranhão

The commercialization of soybeans produced in Maranhão is predominantly oriented towards export, reflecting the state’s strong vocation for the international market. Between 2015 and 2025, soybean exports from Maranhão showed significant growth, aligned with the increase in production. In 2025, the exported volume reached 5,054.56 thousand tons, with an FOB value of US$ 2.03 billion. This volume represents an increase of 15.74% compared to the previous year (2024), and a significant growth of 183.77% compared to 2015, when 1,781.19 thousand tons were exported (MDIC, 2026), demonstrating the growing relevance of Maranhão’s soybeans in foreign trade.

Soybeans have consolidated themselves as the most exported product from Maranhão, accounting for 40.5% of the state’s total exports in 2025. On the national scene, Maranhão ranked eighth among the largest soybean exporters, with a 4.67% share of the country’s total exports (MDIC, 2026). The main destination for soybeans from Maranhão is China, which absorbed 71.56% of the total volume exported in the period from 2015 to 2025. Other relevant destinations include Spain (8.68%), Thailand (5.26%), Turkey (2.14%), Netherlands (1.35%), United Kingdom (1.32%), Japan (1.31%), and Portugal (1.11%) (MDIC, 2026), evidencing diversification, but with a strong concentration in a single market.

The strong dependence on the Chinese market underscores the strategic importance of the Port of Itaqui as a logistics hub for the Northern Arc, facilitating an advantage for maritime connectivity and shorter travel times for Asian routes via the Panama Canal (Buss et al., 2019; EMAP, 2025). In addition to exports, a portion of the soybeans is destined for domestic processing. In 2025, a processing unit in Porto Franco, according to the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE, 2026), had the capacity to process 2,000 tons per day, totaling approximately 660,000 tons annually. This domestic consumption, although smaller than the exported volume, contributes to the diversification of the production chain and the generation of added value locally.

The results of this research show that the soybean production chain in Maranhão faces complex logistical challenges, driven by the accelerated growth of production. The storage deficit, the predominance of road transport on precarious infrastructure, and the underutilization of multimodal potential compromise the grain’s competitiveness. The need for investments in storage, especially at the farm level, the maintenance and expansion of the road network, and the efficient integration of rail and water transport are crucial to optimize outflow, reduce costs, and strengthen Maranhão’s position in the global soybean market, responding directly to the central objective of this study.

4. Conclusion

This study analyzed the main logistical challenges faced in the soybean production chain in Maranhão, focusing on storage infrastructure and transportation systems. An expressive growth in soybean production in the state was verified, which more than doubled between the 2014/2015 and 2024/2025 harvests. However, storage capacity did not keep pace with this growth, resulting in a persistent deficit after the 2019/2020 harvest, which forces premature sales and compromises producer profitability. A positive correlation was observed between production and storage, but the development of storage infrastructure was proportionally lower than the productive expansion. In transportation, the road modal predominated, facing problems of precarious infrastructure, despite the significant multimodal potential of the Center-North Corridor and the Port of Itaqui, which proved to be underutilized. Soybean exports from Maranhão, mostly destined for China, reinforce the state’s international vocation and the need for efficient logistics to maintain competitiveness.

The identified limitations include insufficient static storage capacity, especially at the farm level, and the quality of existing warehouses, which may present aeration and thermometry problems, in addition to a lack of qualified labor. The high cost of investment in storage also hinders keeping pace with production growth. Faced with these challenges, the study’s main contribution lies in highlighting the urgency of coordinated investments. It is recommended to improve storage infrastructure, encouraging the expansion of farm-level structures, and to enhance transportation systems by maintaining the road network and promoting intermodality between rail and water transport. It is suggested that future studies explore the feasibility of new transport infrastructure projects, with public-private partnerships, to optimize intermodal routes and ensure the sustainability of the Maranhão soybean chain.

Bibliographic References

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Péra, T.G.; Caixeta Filho, J.V. 2017. Logística do agronegócio brasileiro: perfil da infraestrutura de transporte. Agroanalysis 37 (10): 30-31.

Reis, A.N.; Bossler, M.B.; Lima, I.B.; Lobato, D.T.C.; Lima, N.G. 2025. Inovações tecnológicas na produção de soja: impactos na produtividade e sustentabilidade. Revista Novos Desafios 5 (2): 01-13.

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